Identifying the microfoundations of foresightfulness in organisations: Lessons in organisational learning and knowledge management through the operationalisation of the Individual Foresight framework

Melissa Innes; Peter Innes; Melissa Sullivan

doi:10.25907/01082

This research, commissioned by Unitywater and conducted by the University of the Sunshine Coast, investigates how employees’ Individual Foresight (IF), their ability to anticipate and act on future scenarios, relates to key organisational outcomes. The study operationalises the IF framework across four domains: Person, Process, Outcomes, and Context, and examines their influence on Job satisfaction, Disengagement, Exhaustion/Overwhelment, and Turnover intention. The research involved an organisation-wide survey, which captured responses from 216 Unitywater employees (approximately 22% of the workforce), using multi-item measures to assess IF factors, mediators such as Social capital and Learning organisation principles, and key Organisational Behaviour (OB) outcomes. Statistical analyses included descriptive averages, ANOVAs, correlations, and regression models to identify direct and mediated relationships between IF factors and employee OB outcomes. The findings reveal that IF Outcomes and IF Context are the strongest predictors of positive OB outcomes. Specifically, the factors Empowered to act, and Creative safety significantly reduce Disengagement, Exhaustion/Overwhelment, and Turnover intention while increasing Job satisfaction. These factors form the Core Culture strand, highlight the importance of psychological safety and innovation support. IF Person and IF Process factors play supporting roles. Confidence in ability and Learning collaboratively were moderately associated with reducing negative outcomes and contribute to the Social Learning and Leadership strand, reinforcing the value of experience, reflection, and team-based learning. External networks (bridging) and perceptions of a Learning organisation were found to mediate many IF factor effects. Employees with strong external connections and who perceive the organisation as valuing learning show better OB outcomes. These mediators enhance the impact of IF factors, especially in regulated or complex work environments. Leadership and team-based work arrangements amplify IF benefits, with leaders and team-based workers reporting higher levels of Empowered to act, Learning collaboratively, and Creative safety. These roles are central to fostering foresightful behaviours and OB outcomes at Unitywater. This research concludes that Unitywater’s commitment to innovation and employee development is well-positioned to leverage the insights from this project. By strategically enhancing IF across its workforce, particularly through culture, leadership, and knowledge-sharing initiatives, Unitywater can improve employee wellbeing, engagement, and organisational performance. Research Background Organisational foresight is increasingly recognised as important for navigating uncertainty (Carayannis et al. 2025); however, research has largely examined foresight as either a strategic organisational capability or an individual cognitive skill. Less is known about how individual foresight capabilities interact with organisational learning systems and workplace conditions to influence employee and organisational outcomes. This gap is particularly significant in regulated and complex industries where employees must balance compliance, adaptation and innovation. Using the Individual Foresight framework (Innes, 2023), this study investigated how individual foresight capability operates within an organisational system and the extent to which social capital and learning organisation practices influence its translation into measurable organisational behaviour outcomes. Research Contribution This research contributes new knowledge by demonstrating that individual foresight is not simply an individual attribute, but a socio-organisational capability shaped by organisational context. Drawing on data from a large utility organisation (N = 216), the study operationalised and empirically tested an integrated model linking individual foresight, social capital, learning organisation practices and organisational behaviour outcomes. The research advances foresight scholarship by providing evidence that organisational conditions mediate the effectiveness of foresight capabilities and by identifying cultural, social and skill-based mechanisms through which foresight influences engagement, wellbeing and retention. The resulting model extends existing theory and provides a transferable framework for understanding foresight in other regulated and complex organisational environments. Research Significance This research has demonstrated significant industry impact and recognition beyond academia. Following the presentation of doctoral research findings to Unitywater's Executive Leadership Team, the organisation commissioned the researcher to undertake this project, recognising the strategic value of foresight and the researcher's specialised expertise in an area with limited regional capability. The project was supported through a $10,000 industry-funded commission awarded to the researcher as an Early Career Researcher, evidencing both esteem and industry confidence in the research. Findings directly informed Unitywater's capability development, leadership, and culture initiatives. The research also gained external recognition through an invited keynote presentation at the Sunshine Coast Manufacturing Skills Forum (February 2026), attended by 116 representatives from government, industry, and education, resulting in further engagement and collaboration opportunities across industry sectors.

Identifying the microfoundations of foresightfulness in organisations: Lessons in organisational learning and knowledge management through the operationalisation of the Individual Foresight framework

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