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Preprint
Rapid Growth of Population, GDP, and Built-up Land Exposed to High Seismic Hazard in Large Cities, China
Preprints.org, Vol.11 June 2024
MDPI AG
2024
Abstract
In the context of rapid urbanization, the spatiotemporal patterns of socioeconomic exposed to high seismic hazard in large cities lacks quantitative assessment, thus, it is difficult to understand the evolution of earthquake catastrophe risk there. In this paper, exposure change rate, and absolute and relatively exposure indices were proposed to quantitatively study the changes of spatiotemporal exposure to high seismic hazard in urban areas of large cities (i.e., permanent residents in urban areas more than 1 million) in Chinese mainland, using a set of multi-temporal population, GDP, and built-up datasets and a seismic hazard zoning map. The results show that, 64 out of 78 large cities are entirely or partially located in high seismically hazardous zones. Although the urban areas of large cities in high seismically hazardous zones (HSHUAs) cover only 1.73% (167177 km²) of mainland China, their share of population, GDP, and built-up land amounted to 18.14%, 30.24% and 24.55%, respectively, in 2015. Unprecedented urbanization has led to a dramatic exposure growth in HSHUAs between 1990 and 2015. The population, GDP, and built-up land in HSHUAs increased by 110 million people (with an average annual growth rate of 2.37%), 273.71 trillion USD(average annual growth rate of 11.15%), and 10593 km 2 (average annual growth rate of 2.02%), respectively. HSHUAs experienced much faster population and GDP growth than the whole country, while relatively slower growth in built-up land. Exposure growth in HSHUAs also was varied for different types of large cities. Megacities had a higher proportion of increased GDP and population in HSHUAs, induced by industry and population agglomeration. Whereas, Type II large cities had a higher proportion of increased built-up land in HSHUAs, driven mainly by urban sprawl. Our analysis indicates that, for large cities under rapid urbanization, it is an urgent need to strengthen resilient urban planning, renewal and construction.
Details
- Title
- Rapid Growth of Population, GDP, and Built-up Land Exposed to High Seismic Hazard in Large Cities, China
- Authors
- Huiduo Wang - Shanghai Normal UniversityQiang Dong (Corresponding Author) - Shanghai Normal UniversityWeijiang Li - Shanghai Normal UniversityJiahong Wen - Shanghai Normal UniversityQing Wu - China Earthquake AdministrationJianli Liu - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and EngineeringYanming Chen - Shanghai Normal University
- Publication details
- Preprints.org, Vol.11 June 2024
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Date published
- 2024
- DOI
- 10.20944/preprints202406.0705.v1
- ISSN
- 2310-287X
- Copyright note
- This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Data Availability
- Data are contained within the article.
- Grant note
- This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 42171080), the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 19CZS077) and Research on Major Policy Theory and Practical Issues of China Earthquake Administration (Grants No. CEAZY2019JZ10).
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991046398602621
- Output Type
- Preprint
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