Climate Mitigation Benefits of Forest Restoration Increase Over Time in East Africa

Mengyu Liang; David M Minor; Julie Silva; Lola Fatoyinbo; Nathan Thomas; Wouter van Goor; Kars Riemer; Richard Kigenyi; Rachel Cohen; Aklilu  Mekuria; Mathew  Williams; Andrew Marshall; Christopher  Field; Chen  Jin; Sean Healey; Susan C Cook-Patton; Sébastien Costedoat; Robert Heilmayr; Robin Chazdon; Matthew Hansen; Ralph Dubayah; Mikhail Urbazaev; Eleanor Durrant; Sander de Haas; Laura Duncanson

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10361711/v1

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Climate Mitigation Benefits of Forest Restoration Increase Over Time in East Africa

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Climate Mitigation Benefits of Forest Restoration Increase Over Time in East Africa

Mengyu Liang, David M Minor, Julie Silva, Lola Fatoyinbo, Nathan Thomas, Wouter van Goor, Kars Riemer, Richard Kigenyi, Rachel Cohen, Aklilu Mekuria, …

Research Square, Vol.19 July 2026

Research Square Company

2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10361711/v1

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Abstract

Forest restoration is a crucial natural climate solution, yet its long-term carbon benefits remain uncertain. Globally, three main strategies are adopted: natural regeneration (NR), assisted natural regeneration (ANR), and active restoration (AR). We integrated 36 years of aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics derived from lidar, Landsat, and forest monitoring plots across East Africa and applied a a quasi-experimental framework to quantify the additionality of active interventions (including AR and ANR) for AGC change over time. We found active interventions commonly exhibit early-stage setbacks in AGC accumulation relative to NR, reflecting site preparation and seedling establishment. However, their impact strengthens over time, becoming pronounced > 9 years after restoration. Long-term AGC gains attributable to ANR and AR range from 0.88 to 3.31 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, with AR performing best in environmentally constrained dry and montane systems and ANR in productive forests facing land-use competition. Optimizing restoration across 14.45 million hectares in East Africa—2.1% of global potential restoration areas—could enhance carbon removal by 2.18 ± 0.36 Gt C by 2050, although less than one-quarter would be realized by 2030. Restoration benefits are therefore strongly time-dependent, and sustained commitment is essential to realize their climate mitigation potential and enhance restoration efficiency.

Details

Title: Climate Mitigation Benefits of Forest Restoration Increase Over Time in East Africa
Authors: Mengyu Liang (Corresponding Author) - Stanford University
David M Minor - University of Maryland, College Park
Julie Silva - University at Buffalo, State University of New York
Lola Fatoyinbo - Goddard Space Flight Center
Nathan Thomas - Edge Hill University
Wouter van Goor - Face the Future (Netherlands)
Kars Riemer - Face the Future (Netherlands)
Richard Kigenyi - Uganda Wildlife Authority
Rachel Cohen - WeForest (Belgium)
Aklilu Mekuria - WeForest (Ethiopia)
Mathew Williams - University of Edinburgh
Andrew Marshall - University of the Sunshine Coast
Christopher Field - Stanford University
Chen Jin
Sean Healey - US Forest Service
Susan C Cook-Patton - Nature Conservancy
Sébastien Costedoat - Conservation International
Robert Heilmayr - University of California, Santa Barbara
Robin Chazdon - University of the Sunshine Coast
Matthew Hansen - University of Maryland, College Park
Ralph Dubayah - University of Maryland, College Park
Mikhail Urbazaev - GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences
Eleanor Durrant - Cool Farm Alliance
Sander de Haas - Justdigit (Netherlands)
Laura Duncanson - University of Maryland, College Park
Publication details: Research Square, Vol.19 July 2026
Publisher: Research Square Company
Date published: 2026
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10361711/v1
ISSN: 2693-5015
Copyright note: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Organisation Unit: Tropical Forests and People Research Centre; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Forest Research Institute
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991251395602621
Output Type: Preprint

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