Beyond expected values: Making environmental decisions using value of information analysis when measurement outcome matters

Morenikeji D Akinlotan; David J Warne; Kate J Helmstedt; Sarah A Vollert; Iadine Chadès; Ryan F Heneghan; Hui Xiao; Matthew P Adams

doi:10.48550/arxiv.2309.09452

Preprint

Beyond expected values: Making environmental decisions using value of information analysis when measurement outcome matters

Morenikeji D Akinlotan, David J Warne, Kate J Helmstedt, Sarah A Vollert, Iadine Chadès, Ryan F Heneghan, Hui Xiao and Matthew P Adams

arXiv, Vol.17 September 2023

Cornell University

2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2309.09452

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Abstract

Decision making

Environmental management

Optimal design

Risk

Uncertainty

Value of information

In ecological and environmental contexts, management actions must sometimes be chosen urgently. Value of information (VoI) analysis provides a quantitative toolkit for projecting the expected improvement that additional measurements make to the choice of management actions. However, traditional VoI analysis reports metrics as expected values (i.e. risk-neutral). This can be problematic because expected values hide uncertainties in projections. The true value of a measurement will only be known after the measurement's outcome is known; there can be large uncertainty in the measurement's value before its outcome is known. As a result, the expected value metrics produced in traditional VoI analysis may not align with the priorities of a risk-averse decision-maker who wants to avoid low-value measurement outcomes. In the present work, we introduce four new VoI metrics that can address risk aversion of the decision-maker to different measurement outcomes. We demonstrate the benefits of the new metrics with two ecological case studies for which traditional VoI analysis has been previously applied. Using the new metrics, we also demonstrate a clear mathematical link between the often-separated environmental decision-making disciplines of VoI and optimal design of experiments. This mathematical link has the potential to catalyse future collaborations between ecologists and statisticians to work together to quantitatively address environmental decision-making questions of fundamental importance. Overall, the introduced VoI metrics complement existing metrics to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive view of the value of, and risks associated with, a proposed monitoring or measurement activity. This is critical for improved environmental outcomes when decisions must be urgently made.

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Title: Beyond expected values: Making environmental decisions using value of information analysis when measurement outcome matters
Authors: Morenikeji D Akinlotan (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
David J Warne (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Kate J Helmstedt (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Sarah A Vollert (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Iadine Chadès (Author) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Ryan F Heneghan (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Hui Xiao (Author) - Deakin University
Matthew P Adams (Corresponding Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Publication details: arXiv, Vol.17 September 2023
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.09452
ISSN: 2331-8422
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99968897902621
Output Type: Preprint

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