Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

Laura Simmons; T Auld; I Hutton; W J Baker; Alison Shapcott

doi:10.3390/biology1030736

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Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

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Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

Laura Simmons, T Auld, I Hutton, W J Baker and Alison Shapcott

Biology, Vol.1(3), pp.736-765

2012

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/biology1030736

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Abstract

climate change

genetic variation

growth rates

population growth

Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species) along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus) is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m). For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species.

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Title: Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?
Authors: Laura Simmons (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
T Auld (Author) - New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage
I Hutton (Author)
W J Baker (Author) - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, United Kingdom
Alison Shapcott (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
Publication details: Biology, Vol.1(3), pp.736-765
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date published: 2012
DOI: 10.3390/biology1030736
ISSN: 2079-7737
Copyright note: Copyright © 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Organisation Unit: School of Science and Engineering - Legacy; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; GeneCology Research Centre - Legacy; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Centre for Bioinnovation
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450305902621
Output Type: Journal article

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