Why estimates of the peat burned in fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan are unreliable and why it matters

Timothy C Jessup; Andrew P Vayda; Mark A Cochrane; Grahame B Applegate; Kevin C Ryan; Bambang Hero Saharjo

doi:10.1111/sjtg.12406

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Why estimates of the peat burned in fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan are unreliable and why it matters

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Why estimates of the peat burned in fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan are unreliable and why it matters

Timothy C Jessup, Andrew P Vayda, Mark A Cochrane, Grahame B Applegate, Kevin C Ryan and Bambang Hero Saharjo

Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, Vol.43(1), pp.7-25

2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12406

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Abstract

Most recent estimates of carbon emissions from Indonesia's peatland fires are based on extrapolation from a narrow base of empirical evidence, raising concerns about the reliability of fire emissions estimates. Measurements of peat fires during ENSO periods are not representative of fires in other years, yet they underlie many estimates of peat fire emissions in ‘normal’ years. Errors may enter into estimates of area burned, quantity of peat combusted and fire emission factors. Problems arise in extrapolating from a few empirical measurements without accounting for conditions that influence combustibility of peat and the heavy fuels through which surface fires transition to become peat fires. These conditions are influenced by drainage and fire history. Our analysis is based on a critical look at a sample of peat fire and emissions studies, including the two most widely cited ones, as well as at the uses made of those studies. Undue extrapolation from unrepresentative empirical studies contributes significantly to the uncertainty of emissions estimates in studies that rely on models rather than empirical observation. We do not offer our own estimates; rather, we argue that the base of evidence must be broadened. We point to examples of empirically based research that more reliably show the contribution of peat fires to overall peatland carbon emissions.

Details

Title: Why estimates of the peat burned in fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan are unreliable and why it matters
Authors: Timothy C Jessup (Author) - Global Green Growth Institute
Andrew P Vayda (Author)
Mark A Cochrane (Author) - University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Grahame B Applegate (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Forest Industries Research Centre
Kevin C Ryan (Author) - Firetree Wildland Fire Sciences, LLC
Bambang Hero Saharjo (Author) - Faculty of Forestry Bogor Agricultural University Bogor Indonesia
Publication details: Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, Vol.43(1), pp.7-25
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
DOI: 10.1111/sjtg.12406
ISSN: 1467-9493
Organisation Unit: Forest Research Institute; Tropical Forests & People Research Centre; Forest Industries Research Centre; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99596108002621
Output Type: Journal article

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