Journal article
When tomorrow comes: A prospective risk assessment of a future artificial general intelligence-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system
Applied Ergonomics, Vol.117, pp.1-14
2024
PMID: 38320386
Abstract
There are concerns that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could pose an existential threat to humanity; however, as AGI does not yet exist it is difficult to prospectively identify risks and develop requisite controls. We applied the Work Domain Analysis Broken Nodes (WDA-BN) and Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork-Broken Links (EAST-BL) methods to identify potential risks in a future ‘envisioned world’ AGI-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system. The findings suggest five main categories of risk in this context: sub-optimal performance risks, goal alignment risks, super-intelligence risks, over-control risks, and enfeeblement risks. Two of these categories, goal alignment risks and super-intelligence risks, have not previously been encountered or dealt with in conventional safety management systems. Whereas most of the identified sub-optimal performance risks can be managed through existing defence design lifecycle processes, we propose that work is required to develop controls to manage the other risks identified. These include controls on AGI developers, controls within the AGI itself, and broader sociotechnical system controls.
Details
- Title
- When tomorrow comes: A prospective risk assessment of a future artificial general intelligence-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system
- Authors
- Paul M. Salmon (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical SystemsScott McLean (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical SystemsTony Carden (Author) - WorkSafe VictoriaBrandon J. King (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical SystemsJason Thompson (Author) - University of MelbourneChris Baber (Author) - University of BirminghamNeville A. Stanton (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical SystemsGemma J.M. Read (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems
- Publication details
- Applied Ergonomics, Vol.117, pp.1-14
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.apergo.2024.104245
- ISSN
- 1872-9126
- PMID
- 38320386
- Organisation Unit
- School of Health - Psychology; Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991002031102621
- Output Type
- Journal article
Metrics
4 Record Views
InCites Highlights
These are selected metrics from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool, related to this output
- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web Of Science research areas
- Engineering, Industrial
- Ergonomics
- Psychology, Applied
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:
Source: InCites