Water, people and climate-change exposure in the Western Pacific: Anticipating the arrival of a ‘perfect storm’

Patrick Nunn; Roselyn Kumar; Carmen Elrick-Barr; Mark Glover; Isoa Korovulavula; Krishna Kumar Kotra; Ben Macdonald; Arishma  Ram; Tim F Smith; Dana C Thomsen

doi:10.1371/journal.pwat.0000389

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Water, people and climate-change exposure in the Western Pacific: Anticipating the arrival of a ‘perfect storm’

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Water, people and climate-change exposure in the Western Pacific: Anticipating the arrival of a ‘perfect storm’

Patrick Nunn, Roselyn Kumar, Carmen Elrick-Barr, Mark Glover, Isoa Korovulavula, Krishna Kumar Kotra, Ben Macdonald, Arishma Ram, Tim F Smith and Dana C Thomsen

PLoS Water, Vol.4(7), pp.1-21

2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pwat.0000389

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Abstract

As climate change accelerates, there is a growing need to ensure that sustainable adaptive solutions are effective and equitable, especially in the Global South where many countries depend on external funding to attain water security. Perceptions of vulnerability and need among Pacific Island Countries are not always based on a region-wide evidence base. This study examines ten Western Pacific Island countries (Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia [French dependency], Palau, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu) that include both high-island groups and low-island (atoll) groups. This study evaluates the equitability of the distribution of external funding for attaining water security. Needs are evaluated in terms of (a) population densities and growth compared with water and land availability and (b) the uneven distribution of water-focused livelihood stressors across this region, specifically those linked to climate variability, sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and geophysical phenomena. Measures of comparative exposure of people in these countries show that those living along high-island coasts, especially in Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, are considerably more exposed than their counterparts elsewhere, especially in atoll nations which have received greater amounts of per capita climate funding for water security. Results show that there is a ‘perfect storm’ brewing in the high-island nations of the Southwest Pacific resulting from their comparatively high exposure to livelihood stressors. This could be addressed by reassessing the distribution of external climate funding within the Western Pacific region. Key findings are the importance of aligning need with assistance and the foundational role of water in livelihood sustainability, both having implications for the hundreds of coastal communities forced to relocate, mostly locally on the same island, in the next few decades. The imperative of addressing such deficiencies in an era of accelerating climate change and declining levels of global support is clear.

Details

Title: Water, people and climate-change exposure in the Western Pacific: Anticipating the arrival of a ‘perfect storm’
Authors: Patrick Nunn (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Law and Society
Roselyn Kumar - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australian Centre for Pacific Islands Research
Carmen Elrick-Barr - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Law and Society
Mark Glover - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Isoa Korovulavula - University of the South Pacific
Krishna Kumar Kotra - University of the South Pacific - Emalus Campus
Ben Macdonald - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Arishma Ram - University of the South Pacific
Tim F Smith - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Sustainability Research Cluster
Dana C Thomsen - University of Waikato
Publication details: PLoS Water, Vol.4(7), pp.1-21
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Date published: 2025
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000389
ISSN: 2767-3219
Copyright note: © 2025 Nunn et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Data Availability: All data is included in the paper except for external datasets to which are listed in the References.
Grants: Water security for locally relocated coastal communities in the western Pacific region, WAC/2022/128, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (Australia, Canberra) - ACIAR
Organisation Unit: Indigenous and Transcultural Research Centre; Australian Centre for Pacific Islands Research; School of Law and Society; Sustainability Research Cluster
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991148040202621
Output Type: Journal article

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