Unpacking Ross River virus trends in Queensland: Regional insights and predictive modeling

Wei Qian; Kathryn Glass; David Harley; Elvina Viennet; Cameron Hurst

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.113446

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Unpacking Ross River virus trends in Queensland: Regional insights and predictive modeling

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Unpacking Ross River virus trends in Queensland: Regional insights and predictive modeling

Wei Qian, Kathryn Glass, David Harley, Elvina Viennet and Cameron Hurst

iScience, Vol.28(10), pp.1-14

2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113446

PMID: 41035683

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Abstract

Public health

Virology

Ross River virus (RRV) transmission cycle varies across Queensland, Australia. Identifying key exposures associated with regional RRV incidence can aid disease prevention and control. Using RRV notification data from 2001 to 2020, we developed negative binomial generalized linear models to predict RRV incidence across three Queensland regions categorized by thermal climate zones (Hot, Warm, and Dry). Predictors and RRV trends differed across regions, indicating unique transmission patterns: seasonally driven in the Hot region, outbreak driven in the Warm region, and a mixed transmission pattern in the Dry region. The important predictors included recent RRV cases, normalized difference vegetation index (vegetation cover density), accessibility/remoteness index of Australia scores (indicating remoteness), and land use proportions. These findings enhance the understanding of local RRV transmission dynamics, highlight primary environmental drivers of transmission, and inform targeted disease management strategies. This approach may also benefit studies on other vector-borne diseases with complex transmission cycles in varying environments and climates.

Details

Title: Unpacking Ross River virus trends in Queensland: Regional insights and predictive modeling
Authors: Wei Qian - Shanghai Normal University
Kathryn Glass - Australian National University
David Harley - The University of Queensland
Elvina Viennet - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Health
Cameron Hurst (Corresponding Author) - Thammasat University
Publication details: iScience, Vol.28(10), pp.1-14
Publisher: Cell Press
Date published: 2025
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.113446
ISSN: 2589-0042
PMID: 41035683
Data Availability: The data are available from Queensland Health upon request. The R code for this study is provided in Data S1. Any additional information is available from the lead contact upon request.
Grant note: This work was supported by the University of Queensland Research Training Scholarship and Frank Clair Scholarship.
Organisation Unit: School of Health
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991171943002621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Infectious Diseases

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