Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease

Shujuan Xia; Jun'ya Takakura; Kazuaki Tsuchiya; Chaeyeon Park; Ryan F Heneghan; Kiyoshi Takahashi

doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013511

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Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease

Journal article

Open access

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Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease

Shujuan Xia, Jun'ya Takakura, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Chaeyeon Park, Ryan F Heneghan and Kiyoshi Takahashi

BMJ Global Health, Vol.9(3), pp.1-11

2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013511

PMID: 38594079

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Abstract

Health education and promotion

Health policy

Health services research

Original research

Red meat consumption is associated with an elevated risk of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In contrast, forage fish, as highly nutritious, environmentally friendly, affordable, and the most abundant fish species in the ocean, are receiving increasing interest from a global food system perspective. However, little research has examined the impact of replacing red meat with forage fish in the global diet on diet-related NCDs.MethodsWe based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults.ResultsThe results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world’s red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5–0.75 million deaths and 8–15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption.ConclusionsOur analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

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Title: Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease
Authors: Shujuan Xia (Corresponding Author) - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Jun'ya Takakura - National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Kazuaki Tsuchiya - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Chaeyeon Park - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Ryan F Heneghan - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Kiyoshi Takahashi - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Publication details: BMJ Global Health, Vol.9(3), pp.1-11
Publisher: BMJ Group
Date published: 2024
DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013511
ISSN: 2059-7908
PMID: 38594079
Copyright note: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
Data Availability: Data are available in a public, open access repository. The red meat and fish consumption projection datasets are available at https://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/food-agriculture-projections-to-2050/en/. Historical catch data (1980–2018) of forage fish are available from FAO FishStatJ (https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/statistics/software/fishstatj) global capture production (quantities). Food caloric content and DHA+EPA concentration values were obtained from FishBase (2022; https://www.fishbase.se/search.php) and USDA (2019; https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/index.html/). Country-, age-, and disease-specific death and DALYs data are available at https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/.
Grant note: JPMEERF20202002 / Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991020898802621
Output Type: Journal article

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