Abstract
In Colombia, the long-lasting internal conflict heavily shaped the socio-ecological context and imposed relationships that persisted after the peace agreement was signed in 2016. One question of interest is whether policies or interventions conceived to attain desirable goals for the post-conflict society may be effective or, rather, if the constraints imposed by the conflict scenario might produce unintended effects, either on the environmental or the social side. To explore this issue, we envisaged the socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of characteristic ecological and social variables within the conflict-related framework and reconstructed their interactions, exploiting elicitation-based information and the literature. We visualized the resulting interactive networks as signed digraphs. Applying the qualitative technique of loop analysis combined with numerical simulations, we predicted the response of the system to policies as drivers of change, such as subsidized credit to capital-intensive activities or policies that increase small farming competitiveness and access to markets. Highlighting causal linkages reveals that the persistence of conflict factors may produce unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities and that, only in a few cases, the persistence of these mechanisms allows synergies between desirable goals.
