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Austral Ecology - 2024 - Shimizu - The relative importance of precipitation change and temperature sensitivity in4.46 MB
Published VersionCC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
The relative importance of precipitation change and temperature sensitivity in determining the population viability of a threatened sub-tropical rainforest endemic plant Triunia robusta (Proteaceae)
Austral Ecology, Vol.49(6), pp.1-22
2024
Appears in UniSC Supported Open Access Outputs
Abstract
Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes, restricted distributions and limited dispersal. We investigated the relative influence of potential climate change on the population viability of Triunia robusta (Proteaceae), an endangered rainforest shrub endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. A spatially explicit, stochastic population model with seven stage classes was developed and linked with the species distribution model (SDM) to explore a variety of hypothetical climate change simulations over a 90-year period from 2010 to 2100: (1) constant population dynamics, (2) changes in habitat distributions as trend in carrying capacity and (3) changes in habitat distributions, precipitation and temperature regime as relative change in seedling survival and fecundity. The results revealed high vulnerability of small populations to local extinction regardless of geographical location or climatic stressors, while some larger populations located in the southern end of the species distribution range showed persistence in-situ. Triunia robusta was found to be sensitive to reduced precipitation and increased temperature, limiting the species reproductive activities and seedling establishment and reducing the overall abundance consequently. Integration of population models and SDM allowed for the evaluation of multiple climatic stressors that may affect habitat distributions and population dynamics of T. robusta and ultimately suggest potential implications for future conservation and management planning with respect to climate change.
Details
- Title
- The relative importance of precipitation change and temperature sensitivity in determining the population viability of a threatened sub-tropical rainforest endemic plant Triunia robusta (Proteaceae)
- Authors
- Yoko Shimizu - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science and Engineering - LegacyArnon Accad - Queensland HerbariumAlison Shapcott (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Centre for Bioinnovation
- Publication details
- Austral Ecology, Vol.49(6), pp.1-22
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
- Date published
- 2024
- DOI
- 10.1111/aec.13546
- ISSN
- 1442-9993; 1442-9985
- Copyright note
- This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2024 The Author(s). Austral Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Ecological Society of Australia.
- Data Availability
- The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Research data are held in the UniSC research data repository.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science and Engineering - Legacy; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Centre for Bioinnovation
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991030498902621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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