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The perils of perfect performance; considering the effects of introducing autonomous vehicles on rates of car vs cyclist conflict
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

The perils of perfect performance; considering the effects of introducing autonomous vehicles on rates of car vs cyclist conflict

Jason Thompson, Gemma J M Read, Jasper S Wijnands and Paul M Salmon
Ergonomics, Vol.63(8), pp.981-996
2020
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The perils of perfect performance; considering the effects of introducing autonomous vehicles on rates of car vs cyclist conflict1.19 MBDownloadView
Accepted Version Open Access
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https://doi.org/10.1080/00140139.2020.1739326View
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Abstract

cycling agent-based modelling health safety traffic
How humans will adapt and respond to the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is uncertain. This study used an agent-based model to explore how AVs, human-operated vehicles, and cyclists might interact based on the introduction of flawlessly performing AVs. Results showed that, although no conflicts occurred between cyclists and AVs, those among human-operated cars and cyclists increased with the introduction of AVs due to cyclists' adjusted expectations of the behaviour and capability of cars (both human-operated and autonomous). Similarly, when human-operated cars were replaced with AVs over time, cyclist conflict rates did not follow a linear reduction consistent with the replacement rate but decreased more slowly in the early stages of replacement prior to 50% substitution. It is concluded that, although flawlessly performing AVs might reduce total conflicts, the introduction of AVs into a transport system could create new sources of error that offset some of their proposed safety benefits.Practitioner Statement: Ergonomics is an applied science that studies interactions between humans and other elements of a system, including non-human agents. Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) provides an approach for exploring dynamic and emergent interactions between agents. In this article we demonstrate ABM through an analysis of how cyclists and pedestrians might interact with Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in future road transport systems.

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Engineering, Industrial
Ergonomics
Psychology
Psychology, Applied

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