The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries

O. Maury; D. P. Tittensor; T. D. Eddy; E. H. Allison; T. Bahri; N. Barrier; L. Campling; W. W. L. Cheung; K. Frieler; E. A. Fulton; P. Guillotreau; R. F. Heneghan; V. W. Y. Lam; D. Leclère; M. Lengaigne; H. Lotze-Campen; C. Novaglio; J. Schewe; J. Rault; D. Squires; U. R. Sumaila; H. Sloterdijk; K. Ortega-Cisneros; A. N. Tidd; Y.‐J. Shin; B. Ruijven; J. Blanchard

doi:10.1029/2024EF004851

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The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries

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The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries

O. Maury, D. P. Tittensor, T. D. Eddy, E. H. Allison, T. Bahri, N. Barrier, L. Campling, W. W. L. Cheung, K. Frieler, E. A. Fulton, …

Earth's Future, Vol.13(3), pp.1-16

2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851

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Abstract

climate change impact

FishMIP

marine ecosystems

marine fisheries

scenarios

SSP

The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio‐economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio‐economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio‐cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic‐demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug‐in‐model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social‐ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.

Details

Title: The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries
Authors: O. Maury (Corresponding Author) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
D. P. Tittensor - Dalhousie University
T. D. Eddy - Memorial University of Newfoundland
E. H. Allison - WorldFish
T. Bahri - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
N. Barrier - Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation
L. Campling - London School of Business and Management
W. W. L. Cheung - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
K. Frieler - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
E. A. Fulton - Centre for Marine Socioecology
P. Guillotreau - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
R. F. Heneghan - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
V. W. Y. Lam - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
D. Leclère - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
M. Lengaigne - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
H. Lotze-Campen - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
C. Novaglio - University of Tasmania
J. Schewe - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
J. Rault - Ifremer
D. Squires - University of California San Diego
U. R. Sumaila - University of British Columbia
H. Sloterdijk - Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
K. Ortega-Cisneros - University of Cape Town
A. N. Tidd - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Y.‐J. Shin - Ifremer
B. Ruijven - International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
J. Blanchard - University of Tasmania
Publication details: Earth's Future, Vol.13(3), pp.1-16
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Date published: 2025
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004851
ISSN: 2328-4277
Copyright note: © 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the erms of the Creative CommonsAttribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes
Data Availability: The FishMIP tools and protocol informations used in the study are available at https://fishmip.org/tools.html.
Grants: Bridging the land–sea divide to ensure food security under climate change, FT210100798 , Australian Research Council (Australia, Canberra) - ARC
Grant note: OM acknowledges support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement N° 817806 (TRIATLAS). DPT acknowledges support from the Jarislowsky Foundation and NSERC. TDE acknowledges funding support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. KOC acknowledges support from the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant 136481) and MISSION ATLANTIC Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (862428). EHA acknowledges the support of the donors to the CGIAR trust-fund, through the Resilient Aquatic Food Systems Initiative. YJS acknowledges support from the Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, ANR contract n°ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01), the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 869300 (FutureMARES), the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101060072 (ActNow), France Filière Pêches, and the Pew marine fellows programme. This paper was discussed at the ISIMIP Prague 2023 workshop supported by COST Action CA19139 PROCLIAS (PROcess-based models for CLimate Impact Attribution across Sectors), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology; https://www.cost.eu).
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991127097802621
Output Type: Journal article

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