The Inflation Illusion: How New Zealand Households Overestimate Increases in Food Prices

Puneet Vatsa; Alan Renwick

doi:10.1002/snz2.70018

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The Inflation Illusion: How New Zealand Households Overestimate Increases in Food Prices

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

The Inflation Illusion: How New Zealand Households Overestimate Increases in Food Prices

Puneet Vatsa and Alan Renwick

Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Vol.56(1), pp.1-8

2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/snz2.70018

PMCID: PMC12965021

PMID: 41798785

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Abstract

food price inflation

inflation perceptions

New Zealand

quantile regressions

Using nationally representative survey data collected in February 2025, this article examines how New Zealand households perceive food price inflation. We find that perceived food price inflation significantly exceeds the official rate, with respondents estimating food price inflation to be over seven times higher than reported figures. Perceptions vary by age and gender: women report higher inflation estimates than men, and perceived inflation decreases with age. Quantile regressions suggest that these differences are concentrated around the median and the upper quantile of the distribution of inflation perceptions. These findings highlight a misalignment between statistical reporting and lived experience, with implications for nutrition, wellbeing, and communication of economic data.

Details

Title: The Inflation Illusion: How New Zealand Households Overestimate Increases in Food Prices
Authors: Puneet Vatsa - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Business and Creative Industries
Alan Renwick (Corresponding Author) - Lincoln University
Publication details: Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Vol.56(1), pp.1-8
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Asia Pacific (Singapore)
Date published: 2026
DOI: 10.1002/snz2.70018
ISSN: 1175-8899
PMID: 41798785; PMC12965021
Copyright note: © 2026 The Author(s). Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Society of New Zealand Te Apārangi This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Grant note: This work was supported by the Lincoln University Faculty of Agribusiness and Commerce Seed Funds and Lincoln University Centre of Excellence in Transformative Agribusiness.
Organisation Unit: School of Business and Creative Industries
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991210067302621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Economics

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