Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making

Carly N Cook; Sohail Inayatullah; Mark A Burgman; William J Sutherland; Brendan A Wintle

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005

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Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making

Carly N Cook, Sohail Inayatullah, Mark A Burgman, William J Sutherland and Brendan A Wintle

Trends in ecology & evolution, Vol.29(9), pp.531-541

2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005

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Abstract

alternative futures

conservation

causal layered analysis

conservation policy

decision-making

environmental futures

futures research

futures studies

strategic thinking

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda.

Details

Title: Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making
Authors: Carly N Cook (Author) - Monash University
Sohail Inayatullah (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts and Business
Mark A Burgman (Author) - University of Melbourne
William J Sutherland (Author) - University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Brendan A Wintle (Author) - University of Melbourne
Publication details: Trends in ecology & evolution, Vol.29(9), pp.531-541
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
Date published: 2014
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.07.005
ISSN: 0169-5347
Organisation Unit: School of Social Sciences - Legacy; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; Sustainability Research Cluster
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450206102621
Output Type: Journal article

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