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Journal article
Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines
Nature Communications, Vol.15(1), pp.1-11
2024
PMID: 38195697
Abstract
Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.
Details
- Title
- Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines
- Authors
- Angus Atkinson (Corresponding Author) - Plymouth Marine LaboratoryAxel G Rossberg (Author) - Queen Mary University of LondonUrsula Gaedke (Author) - University of PotsdamGary Sprules (Author) - University of TorontoRyan F Heneghan (Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyStratos Batziakas (Author) - Hellenic Centre for Marine ResearchMaria Grigoratou (Author) - Mercator OceanElaine Fileman (Author) - Plymouth Marine LaboratoryKatrin Schmidt (Author) - University of PlymouthConstantin Frangoulis (Author) - Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
- Publication details
- Nature Communications, Vol.15(1), pp.1-11
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date published
- 2024
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5
- ISSN
- 2041-1723; 0028-0836
- PMID
- 38195697
- Copyright note
- This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Data Availability
- The data supporting the key findings of this paper are presented in Supplementary Table 1. The data underlying graphs and plots (Figs. 1, 2, 3 and 5) are presented in the source data file. Source data are provided with this paper.
- Grant note
- UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) CLASS Theme 1.3 and FOCUS programmes (A.A. and E.F.); DEFRA: NC34 – Pelagic Program, part of DEFRA’s marine Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (mNCEA) Programme Marine Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (A.A.); NERC NE/T003510/1 (AGR); NERC SYM-PEL (K.S.); DFG, SFB 248 (U.G.); Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery (NSERC) Grant No. 456040 (WGS).
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99991156102621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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