Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations

Melissa N Staines; Hayley Versace; Jacques-Olivier  Laloë; Caitlin E Smith; Christine  A Madden Hof; David T Booth; Ian R Tibbetts; Graeme C Hays

doi:10.1111/gcb.16952

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Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations

Melissa N Staines, Hayley Versace, Jacques-Olivier Laloë, Caitlin E Smith, Christine A Madden Hof, David T Booth, Ian R Tibbetts and Graeme C Hays

Global Change Biology, Vol.29(23), pp.6546-6557

2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16952

PMID: 37795641

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Abstract

climate modelling

endangered species

ENSO

forecast

marine turtles

precipitation

Projection models are being increasingly used to manage threatened taxa by estimating their responses to climate change. Sea turtles are particularly susceptible to climate change as they have temperature-dependent sex determination and increased sand temperatures on nesting beaches could result in the ‘feminisation’ of hatchling sex ratios for some populations. This study modelled likely long-term trends in sand temperatures and hatchling sex ratios at an equatorial nesting site for endangered green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata). A total of 1078 days of sand temperature data were collected from 28 logger deployments at nest depth between 2018 and 2022 in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Long-term trends in sand temperature were generated from a model using air temperature as an environmental proxy. The influence of rainfall and seasonal variation on sand temperature was also investigated. Between 1960 and 2019, we estimated that sand temperature increased by ~0.6°C and the average hatchling sex ratio was relatively balanced (46.2% female, SD = 10.7). No trends were observed in historical rainfall anomalies and projections indicated no further changes to rainfall until 2100. Therefore, the sex ratio models were unlikely to be influenced by changing rainfall patterns. A relatively balanced sex ratio such as this is starkly different to the extremely female-skewed hatchling sex ratio (>99% female) reported for another Coral Sea nesting site, Raine Island (~850 km West). This PNG nesting site is likely rare in the global context, as it is less threatened by climate-induced feminisation. Although there is no current need for ‘cooling’ interventions, the mean projected sex ratios for 2020–2100 were estimated 76%–87% female, so future interventions may be required to increase male production. Our use of long-term sand temperature and rainfall trends has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on sea turtles.

Details

Title: Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations
Authors: Melissa N Staines (Corresponding Author) - The University of Queensland
Hayley Versace (Author) - Conflict Islands Conservation Initiative (Papua New Guinea)
Jacques-Olivier Laloë (Author) - Deakin University
Caitlin E Smith (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Christine A Madden Hof (Author) - World Wide Fund for Nature (Australia)
David T Booth (Author) - The University of Queensland
Ian R Tibbetts (Author) - The University of Queensland
Graeme C Hays (Author) - Deakin University
Publication details: Global Change Biology, Vol.29(23), pp.6546-6557
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Date published: 2023
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16952
ISSN: 1365-2486
PMID: 37795641
Copyright note: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Data Availability: Data used in this study is available via The University of Queensland's (UQ eSpace) data repository https://doi.org/10.48610/b7814cd.
Grant note: World Wide Fund for Nature-Australia (WWF-Aus) Conflict Island Conservation Initiative University of Queensland Deakin University
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99971195502621
Output Type: Journal article

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