Journal article
Risks to future atoll habitability from climate‐driven environmental changes
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol.12(3), pp.1-28
2021
Abstract
Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate‐related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea‐level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land‐based and marine food supply from reef‐dependent fish and tuna and tuna‐like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century.
Details
- Title
- Risks to future atoll habitability from climate‐driven environmental changes
- Authors
- Virginie K E Duvat (Corresponding Author) - La Rochelle UniversitéAlexandre K Magnan (Author) - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations InternationalesChris T Perry (Author) - University of ExeterTom Spencer (Author) - University of CambridgeJohann D Bell (Author) - University of WollongongColette Wabnitz (Author) - CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereArthur P Webb (Author) - University of WollongongIan White (Author) - Australian National UniversityKathleen L McInnes (Author) - CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereJean-Pierre Gattuso (Author) - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations InternationalesNicholas A J Graham (Author) - Sorbonne UniversitéPatrick Nunn (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Social Sciences - LegacyGonéri Le Cozannet (Author) - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières
- Publication details
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol.12(3), pp.1-28
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
- Date published
- 2021
- DOI
- 10.1002/wcc.700
- ISSN
- 1757-7799; 1757-7780
- Copyright note
- This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Duvat, VKE, Magnan, AK, Perry, CT, et al. Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes. WIREs Clim Change. 2021; 12:e700. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.700. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
- Organisation Unit
- Indigenous and Transcultural Research Centre; Australian Centre for Pacific Islands Research; School of Social Sciences - Legacy; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Law and Society; Sustainability Research Cluster
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99504908902621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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