Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction

Hayley M Geyle; Conrad J Hoskin; Deborah S Bower; Renee Catullo; Simon Clulow; Michael Driessen; Katrina Daniels; Stephen T Garnett; Deon Gilbert; Geoffrey W Heard; Jean-Marc Hero; Harry B Hines; Emily P Hoffmann; Greg Hollis; David A Hunter; Frank Lemckert; Michael Mahony; Gerry Marantelli; David Newell; J Dale Roberts; Keith R McDonald; Nicola J Mitchell; Ben C Scheele; Michael Scroggie; Eric Vanderduys; Skye Wassens; Matt West; John Woinarski; Graeme R Gillespie

doi:10.1071/PC21019

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Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction

Hayley M Geyle, Conrad J Hoskin, Deborah S Bower, Renee Catullo, Simon Clulow, Michael Driessen, Katrina Daniels, Stephen T Garnett, Deon Gilbert, Geoffrey W Heard, …

Pacific Conservation Biology, Vol.28, pp.211-223

2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1071/PC21019

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Abstract

amphibian

anthropogenic mass extinction crisis

Australia

biodiversity conservation

climate change

Delphi

expert elicitation

frog

IDEA

IUCN criteria

threatening processes

More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.

Details

Title: Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction
Authors: Hayley M Geyle (Corresponding Author) - Charles Darwin University
Conrad J Hoskin (Author) - James Cook University
Deborah S Bower (Author)
Renee Catullo (Author) - Australian National University
Simon Clulow (Author) - University of Canberra
Michael Driessen (Author) - Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania
Katrina Daniels (Author) - Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment
Stephen T Garnett (Author) - Charles Darwin University
Deon Gilbert (Author) - Zoos Victoria
Geoffrey W Heard (Author) - Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
Jean-Marc Hero (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Harry B Hines (Author) - Queensland Department of Environment and Science
Emily P Hoffmann (Author) - The University of Western Australia
Greg Hollis (Author)
David A Hunter (Author) - NSW Department of Planning and Environment
Frank Lemckert (Author) - Australian Museum
Michael Mahony (Author) - University of Newcastle Australia
Gerry Marantelli (Author)
David Newell (Author) - Southern Cross University
J Dale Roberts (Author) - The University of Western Australia
Keith R McDonald (Author) - Queensland Museum
Nicola J Mitchell (Author) - The University of Western Australia
Ben C Scheele (Author) - Australian National University
Michael Scroggie (Author) - Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
Eric Vanderduys (Author) - CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences (Australia)
Skye Wassens (Author) - Charles Sturt University
Matt West (Author) - The University of Melbourne
John Woinarski (Author)
Graeme R Gillespie (Author)
Publication details: Pacific Conservation Biology, Vol.28, pp.211-223
Publisher: C S I R O Publishing
Date published: 2022
DOI: 10.1071/PC21019
ISSN: 2204-4604; 1038-2097
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99565308602621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology

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