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Journal article
Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems
Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, Vol.1, pp.1-18
2023
Abstract
Few coastal ecosystems remain untouched by direct human activities, and none are unimpacted by anthropogenic climate change. These drivers interact with and exacerbate each other in complex ways, yielding a mosaic of ecological consequences that range from adaptive responses, such as geographic range shifts and changes in phenology, to severe impacts, such as mass mortalities, ecological regime shifts and loss of biodiversity. Identifying the role of climate change in these phenomena requires corroborating evidence from multiple lines of evidence, including laboratory experiments, field observations, numerical models and palaeorecords. Yet few studies can confidently quantify the magnitude of the effect attributable solely to climate change, because climate change seldom acts alone in coastal ecosystems. Projections of future risk are further complicated by scenario uncertainty – that is, our lack of knowledge about the degree to which humanity will mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions, or will make changes to the other ways we impact coastal ecosystems. Irrespective, ocean warming would be impossible to reverse before the end of the century, and sea levels are likely to continue to rise for centuries and remain elevated for millennia. Therefore, future risks to coastal ecosystems from climate change are projected to mirror the impacts already observed, with severity escalating with cumulative emissions. Promising avenues for progress beyond such qualitative assessments include collaborative modelling initiatives, such as model intercomparison projects, and the use of a broader range of knowledge systems. But we can reduce risks to coastal ecosystems by rapidly reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, by restoring damaged habitats, by regulating non-climate stressors using climate-smart conservation actions, and by implementing inclusive coastal-zone management approaches, especially those involving nature-based solutions.
Details
- Title
- Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems
- Authors
- David Schoeman (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and EngineeringJessica A Bolin (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and EngineeringSarah R Cooley (Author) - Ocean Conservancy
- Publication details
- Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, Vol.1, pp.1-18
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- Date published
- 2023
- DOI
- 10.1017/cft.2023.27
- ISSN
- 2754-7205
- Copyright note
- © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
- Grant note
- Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP230102359
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99971751502621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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