Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

C R Williams; G Mincham; Helen M Faddy; E Viennet; S A Ritchie; D Harley

doi:10.1017/S095026881600162X

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Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

C R Williams, G Mincham, Helen M Faddy, E Viennet, S A Ritchie and D Harley

Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.144(14), pp.3091-3100

2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026881600162X

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Abstract

Public Health and Health Services

arboviruses

climate (impact of)

dengue fever

infectious disease epidemiology

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Details

Title: Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change
Authors: C R Williams (Author) - University of South Australia
G Mincham (Author) - University of South Australia
Helen M Faddy (Author) - Australian Red Cross Blood Service
E Viennet (Author) - Australian National University
S A Ritchie (Author) - James Cook University
D Harley (Author) - Australian National University
Publication details: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.144(14), pp.3091-3100
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date published: 2016
DOI: 10.1017/S095026881600162X
ISSN: 0950-2688
Organisation Unit: School of Health - Biomedicine; School of Health; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Health and Sport Sciences - Legacy; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450827602621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Infectious Diseases; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

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