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Published Version (Advanced Access)CC BY-NC V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Price Discovery in the United States Ethanol Markets: A Dynamic Time Warping Approach
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol.Advanced access
26-Feb-2026
Abstract
We employ dynamic time warping, a non-parametric approach to examine price discovery in three ethanol markets in the United States: Chicago, Omaha, and Stockton. Focusing on the lead-lag relationships between ethanol spot prices and futures prices for ethanol, corn, and crude oil, we show that these associations varied significantly across regions and over time, reflecting the heterogeneity of market structures and the influence of both supply-side fundamentals and energy market volatility. Our approach allows us to identify quick reversals in price leadership across markets. The findings underscore the importance of tailoring policy and risk management strategies to regional market conditions.
Details
- Title
- Price Discovery in the United States Ethanol Markets: A Dynamic Time Warping Approach
- Authors
- Dragan Miljkovic (Corresponding Author) - North Dakota State UniversityPuneet Vatsa - University of the Sunshine Coast
- Publication details
- Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol.Advanced access
- Publisher
- Western Agricultural Economics Association
- DOI
- 10.22004/ag.econ.376276
- ISSN
- 2327-8285
- Copyright note
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Business and Creative Industries
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991214651102621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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