Predictive modelling reveals Australian continental risk hotspots for marine debris interactions with key threatened species

Caitlin E Smith; Ben L Gilby; Jason van de Merwe; Jodi Jones; Kathy A Townsend

doi:10.1111/gcb.17313

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Predictive modelling reveals Australian continental risk hotspots for marine debris interactions with key threatened species

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Predictive modelling reveals Australian continental risk hotspots for marine debris interactions with key threatened species

Caitlin E Smith, Ben L Gilby, Jason van de Merwe, Jodi Jones and Kathy A Townsend

Global Change Biology, Vol.30(6), pp.1-12

2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17313

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Abstract

citizen science

conservation

debris surveys

plastic

policy change

pollution

Anthropogenic debris is a global threat that impacts threatened species through various lethal and sub-lethal consequences, as well as overall ecosystem health. This study used a database of over 24,000 beach surveys of marine debris collated by the Australian Marine Debris Initiative from 2012 to 2021, with two key objectives: (1) identify variables that most influence the occurrence of debris hotspots on a continental scale and (2) use these findings to identify likely hotspots of interaction between threatened species and marine debris. The number of particles found in each beach survey was modelled alongside fifteen biological, social, and physical spatial variables including land use, physical oceanography, population, rainfall, distance to waste facilities, ports, and mangroves to identify the significant drivers of debris deposition. The model of best fit for predicting debris particle abundance was calculated using a generalized additive model. Overall, debris was more abundant at sites near catchments with high annual rainfall (mm), intensive land use (km2), and that were nearer to ports (km) and mangroves (km). These results support previous studies which state that mangroves are a significant sink for marine debris, and that large ports and urbanized catchments are significant sources for marine debris. We illustrate the applicability of these models by quantifying significant overlap between debris hotspots and the distributions for four internationally listed threatened species that exhibit debris interactions; green turtle (26,868 km2), dugong (16,164 km2), Australian sea lion (2903 km2) and Flesh-footed Shearwater (2413 km2). This equates to less than 1% (Flesh-footed Shearwater, Australian sea lion), over 2% (green sea turtle) and over 5% (dugong) of their habitat being identified as areas of high risk for marine debris interactions. The results of this study hold practical value, informing decision-making processes, managing debris pollution at continental scales, as well as identifying gaps in species monitoring.

Details

Title: Predictive modelling reveals Australian continental risk hotspots for marine debris interactions with key threatened species
Authors: Caitlin E Smith - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Ben L Gilby - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Jason van de Merwe - Griffith University
Jodi Jones - Tangaroa Blue Foundation (Australia)
Kathy A Townsend - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Publication details: Global Change Biology, Vol.30(6), pp.1-12
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Date published: 2024
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17313
ISSN: 1365-2486; 1354-1013
Copyright note: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the Australian Marine Debris Initiative. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for this study. Data are available from the authors with the permission of the Australian Marine Debris Initiative. Other datasets that support the findings of this study are available in the supplementary material of this article.
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991039692602621
Output Type: Journal article