Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one‐horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

Ganesh Pant; Tek Maraseni; Armando Apan; Benjamin L Allen

doi:10.1002/ece3.8421

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Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one‐horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

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Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one‐horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

Ganesh Pant, Tek Maraseni, Armando Apan and Benjamin L Allen

Ecology and Evolution, Vol.11(24), pp.18288-18304

2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8421

PMID: 35003673

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Abstract

BIOMOD2

climate change refugia

correlative approach

ensemble modeling

habitat loss

land use change

species distribution modeling

Rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Land use change continues to alter the availability and quality of habitat and further intensifies the effects of climate change on wildlife species. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for an iconic wildlife species, greater one‐horned rhinoceros due to the combined effects of climate and land use changes. We compiled an extensive database on current rhinoceros distribution and selected nine ecologically meaningful environmental variables for developing ensemble models of habitat suitability using ten different species distribution modeling algorithms in the BIOMOD2 R package; and we did this under current climatic conditions and then projected them onto two possible climate change scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) and two different time frames (2050 and 2070). Out of ten algorithms, random forest performed the best, and five environmental variables—distance from grasslands, mean temperature of driest quarter, distance from wetlands, annual precipitation, and slope, contributed the most in the model. The ensemble model estimated the current suitable habitat of rhinoceros to be 2610 km2, about 1.77% of the total area of Nepal. The future habitat suitability under the lowest and highest emission scenarios was estimated to be: (1) 2325 and 1904 km2 in 2050; and (2) 2287 and 1686 km2 in 2070, respectively. Our results suggest that over one‐third of the current rhinoceros habitat would become unsuitable within a period of 50 years, with the predicted declines being influenced to a greater degree by climatic changes than land use changes. We have recommended several measures to moderate these impacts, including relocation of the proposed Nijgad International Airport given that a considerable portion of potential rhinoceros habitat will be lost if the airport is constructed on the currently proposed site.

Details

Title: Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one‐horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios
Authors: Ganesh Pant (Corresponding Author) - University of Southern Queensland
Tek Maraseni (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Tropical Forests and People Research Centre
Armando Apan (Author) - University of the Philippines Diliman
Benjamin L Allen (Author) - Nelson Mandela University
Publication details: Ecology and Evolution, Vol.11(24), pp.18288-18304
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Date published: 2021
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8421
ISSN: 2045-7758; 2045-7758
PMID: 35003673
Copyright note: © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Organisation Unit: Tropical Forests and People Research Centre; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99602208502621
Output Type: Journal article