Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Joshua Cinner; Iain Caldwell; Lauric Thiault; John Ben; Julia Blanchard; Marta Coll; Amy Diedrich; Tyler Eddy; Jason Everett; Christian Folberth; Didier Gascuel; Jerome Guiet; Georgina Gurney; Ryan Heneghan; Jonas Jägermeyr; Narriman Jiddawi; Rachael Lahari; John Kuange; Wenfeng Liu; Christoph Müller; Olivier Maury; Camilla Novaglio; Juliano Palacios-Abrantes; Colleen Petrik; Ando Rabearisoa; Derek Tittensor; Andrew Wamukota; Richard Pollnac

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

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Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

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Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Joshua Cinner, Iain Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, John Ben, Julia Blanchard, Marta Coll, Amy Diedrich, Tyler Eddy, Jason Everett, Christian Folberth, …

Nature Communications, Vol.13, pp.1-11

2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

PMID: 35790744

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Abstract

climate change

climate-change ecology

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

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Title: Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities
Authors: Joshua Cinner (Corresponding Author) - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
Iain Caldwell (Author) - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
Lauric Thiault (Author) - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
John Ben (Author)
Julia Blanchard (Author) - University of Tasmania
Marta Coll (Author) - Ecopath International Initiative
Amy Diedrich (Author) - James Cook University
Tyler Eddy (Author) - Memorial University of Newfoundland
Jason Everett (Author) - The University of Queensland
Christian Folberth (Author) - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Didier Gascuel (Author) - Ifremer
Jerome Guiet (Author) - University of California, Los Angeles
Georgina Gurney (Author) - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
Ryan Heneghan (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Jonas Jägermeyr (Author) - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Narriman Jiddawi (Author) - University of Dar es Salaam
Rachael Lahari (Author)
John Kuange (Author) - Wildlife Conservation Society, Papua New Guinea
Wenfeng Liu (Author) - China Agricultural University
Christoph Müller (Author) - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Olivier Maury (Author) - Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation
Camilla Novaglio (Author) - University of Tasmania
Juliano Palacios-Abrantes (Author) - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Colleen Petrik (Author) - Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Ando Rabearisoa (Author) - University of California, Santa Cruz
Derek Tittensor (Author) - Dalhousie University
Andrew Wamukota (Author) - Pwani University
Richard Pollnac (Author) - University of Rhode Island
Publication details: Nature Communications, Vol.13, pp.1-11
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Date published: 2022
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4
ISSN: 2041-1723
PMID: 35790744
Copyright note: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99745579602621
Output Type: Journal article

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