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Journal article
Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol.15(11), pp.1-17
2021
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.
Details
- Title
- Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia
- Authors
- Timothy White (Author)Gina Mincham (Author) - University of South AustraliaBrian L Montgomery (Author) - Metro South HealthCassie C Jansen (Author) - Queensland HealthXiaodong Huang (Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyCraig R Williams (Author) - University of South AustraliaRobert Lewis Powell Flower (Author) - Australian Red Cross LifebloodHelen Faddy (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - LegacyFrancesca D Frentiu (Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyElvina Viennet (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
- Publication details
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol.15(11), pp.1-17
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science
- Date published
- 2021
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009963
- ISSN
- 1935-2735
- Copyright note
- Copyright: © 2021 White et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Health - Biomedicine; School of Health; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99584807302621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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