Journal article
Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients
Nature Climate Change, Vol.9(12), pp.959-963
2019
Abstract
As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity1,2. However, different responses of species to warming and changed species interactions make predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance a challenge3,4. Here, we use three decades of fish and plankton survey data to assess how warming changes the relative dominance of warm-affinity and cold-affinity species5,6. Regions with stable temperatures (for example, the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico) show little change in dominance structure, while areas with warming (for example, the North Atlantic) see strong shifts towards warm-water species dominance. Importantly, communities whose species pools had diverse thermal affinities and a narrower range of thermal tolerance showed greater sensitivity, as anticipated from simulations. The composition of fish communities changed less than expected in regions with strong temperature depth gradients. There, species track temperatures by moving deeper2,7, rather than horizontally, analogous to elevation shifts in land plants8. Temperature thus emerges as a fundamental driver for change in marine systems, with predictable restructuring of communities in the most rapidly warming areas using metrics based on species thermal affinities. The ready and predictable dominance shifts suggest a strong prognosis of resilience to climate change for these communities.
Details
- Title
- Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients
- Authors
- Michael T Burrows (Author) - Scottish Marine Institute, United KingdomAmanda E Bates (Author) - University of Southampton, United KingdomMark J Costello (Author) - University of Auckland, New ZealandMartin Edwards (Author) - Plymouth University, United KingdomGraham J Edgar (Author) - University of TasmaniaClive J Fox (Author) - Scottish Marine Institute, United KingdomBenjamin S Halpern (Author) - University of California, United StatesJan G Hiddink (Author) - Bangor University, United KingdomMalin L Pinsky (Author) - Rutgers University, United StatesRyan D Batt (Author) - Rutgers University, United StatesJorge Garcia Molinos (Author) - Hokkaido University, JapanBenjamin L Payne (Author) - Scottish Marine Institute, United KingdomDavid S Schoeman (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - School of Science & EngineeringRick D Stuart-Smith (Author) - University of TasmaniaElvira S Poloczanska (Author) - University of Queensland
- Publication details
- Nature Climate Change, Vol.9(12), pp.959-963
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date published
- 2019
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41558-019-0631-5
- ISSN
- 1758-678X
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science and Engineering - Legacy; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99451248102621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web Of Science research areas
- Environmental Sciences
- Environmental Studies
- Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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Source: InCites