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Published VersionCC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
Nature Climate Change, Vol.11, pp.973-981
2021
PMCID: PMC8556156
PMID: 34745348
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
Details
- Title
- Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
- Authors
- Derek P. Tittensor (Corresponding Author) - Dalhousie UniversityCamilla Novaglio (Author) - University of TasmaniaCheryl S. Harrison (Author) - Louisiana State UniversityRyan F. Heneghan (Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyNicolas Barrier (Author) - Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and ConservationDaniele Bianchi (Author) - University of California, Los AngelesLaurent Bopp (Author) - École PolytechniqueAndrea Bryndum-Buchholz (Author) - Dalhousie UniversityGregory L. Britten (Author) - Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMatthias Büchner (Author) - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchWilliam W. L. Cheung (Author) - Fisheries and Oceans CanadaVilly Christensen (Author) - Fisheries and Oceans CanadaMarta Coll (Author) - Institute of Marine SciencesJohn P. Dunne (Author) - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryTyler D. Eddy (Author) - Memorial University of NewfoundlandJason D. Everett (Author) - UNSW SydneyJose A. Fernandes-Salvador (Author) - Basque Research and Technology AllianceElizabeth A. Fulton (Author) - CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereEric D. Galbraith (Author) - McGill UniversityDidier Gascuel (Author) - Ecology and Ecosystem HealthJerome Guiet (Author) - University of California, Los AngelesJasmin G. John (Author) - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryJason S. Link (Author) - NOAA National Marine Fisheries ServiceOlivier Maury (Author) - Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and ConservationHeike K. Lotze (Author) - Dalhousie UniversityKelly Ortega-Cisneros (Author) - University of Cape TownJuliano Palacios-Abrantes (Author) - University of Wisconsin–MadisonColleen M. Petrik (Author) - Texas A&M UniversityHubert Pontavice (Author) - Écologie et santé des écosystèmesJonathan Rault (Author) - Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and ConservationAnthony J. Richardson (Author) - The University of QueenslandLynne Shannon (Author) - University of Cape TownYunne-Jai Shin (Author) - Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and ConservationJeroen Steenbeek (Author) - Ecopath International InitiativeCharles A. Stock (Author) - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryJulia L. Blanchard (Author) - University of Tasmania
- Publication details
- Nature Climate Change, Vol.11, pp.973-981
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date published
- 2021
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
- ISSN
- 1758-6798; 1758-678X
- PMID
- 34745348; PMC8556156
- Copyright note
- This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99745579302621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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