Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted Chlamydia trachomatis infection

R T Gray; K W Beagley; Peter Timms; D P Wilson

doi:10.1086/598983

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Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted Chlamydia trachomatis infection

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted Chlamydia trachomatis infection

R T Gray, K W Beagley, Peter Timms and D P Wilson

Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol.199(11), pp.1680-1688

2009

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/598983

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Abstract

Chlamydia trachomatis

vaccines

Background. We investigated the likely impact of vaccines on the prevalence of and morbidity due to Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infections in heterosexual populations. Methods. An individual-based mathematical model of chlamydia transmission was developed and linked to the infection course in chlamydia-infected individuals. The model describes the impact of a vaccine through its effect on the chlamydial load required to infect susceptible individuals (the "critical load"), the load in infected individuals, and their subsequent infectiousness. The model was calibrated using behavioral, biological, and clinical data. Results. A fully protective chlamydia vaccine administered before sexual debut can theoretically eliminate chlamydia epidemics within 20 years. Partially effective vaccines can still greatly reduce the incidence of chlamydia infection. Vaccines should aim primarily to increase the critical load in susceptible individuals and secondarily to decrease the peak load and/or the duration of infection in vaccinated individuals who become infected. Vaccinating both sexes has a beneficial impact on chlamydia-related morbidity, but targeting women is more effective than targeting men. Conclusions. Our findings can be used in laboratory settings to evaluate vaccine candidates in animal models, by regulatory bodies in the promotion of candidates for clinical trials, and by public health authorities in deciding on optimal intervention strategies. © 2009 by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

Details

Title: Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted Chlamydia trachomatis infection
Authors: R T Gray (Author) - University of New South Wales
K W Beagley (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Peter Timms (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
D P Wilson (Author) - University of New South Wales
Publication details: Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol.199(11), pp.1680-1688
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Date published: 2009
DOI: 10.1086/598983
ISSN: 0022-1899
Copyright note: Copyright © 2009 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Infectious Diseases following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; Centre for Bioinnovation
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99449062802621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Immunology; Infectious Diseases; Microbiology

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