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Scandinavian Med Sci Sports - 2024 - Borg - Meta‐analysis prediction intervals are under reported in sport and exercise920.14 kB
Published VersionCC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Meta-analysis prediction intervals are under reported in sport and exercise medicine
Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, Vol.34(3), pp.1-10
2024
PMID: 38501202
Abstract
Aim
Prediction intervals are a useful measure of uncertainty for meta-analyses that capture the likely effect size of a new (similar) study based on the included studies. In comparison, confidence intervals reflect the uncertainty around the point estimate but provide an incomplete summary of the underlying heterogeneity in the meta-analysis. This study aimed to estimate (i) the proportion of meta-analysis studies that report a prediction interval in sports medicine; and (ii) the proportion of studies with a discrepancy between the reported confidence interval and a calculated prediction interval.
Methods
We screened, at random, 1500 meta-analysis studies published between 2012 and 2022 in highly ranked sports medicine and medical journals. Articles that used a random effect meta-analysis model were included in the study. We randomly selected one meta-analysis from each article to extract data from, which included the number of estimates, the pooled effect, and the confidence and prediction interval.
Results
Of the 1500 articles screened, 866 (514 from sports medicine) used a random effect model. The probability of a prediction interval being reported in sports medicine was 1.7% (95% CI = 0.9%, 3.3%). In medicine the probability was 3.9% (95% CI = 2.4%, 6.6%). A prediction interval was able to be calculated for 220 sports medicine studies. For 60% of these studies, there was a discrepancy in study findings between the reported confidence interval and the calculated prediction interval. Prediction intervals were 3.4 times wider than confidence intervals.
Conclusion
Very few meta-analyses report prediction intervals and hence are prone to missing the impact of between-study heterogeneity on the overall conclusions. The widespread misinterpretation of random effect meta-analyses could mean that potentially harmful treatments, or those lacking a sufficient evidence base, are being used in practice. Authors, reviewers, and editors should be aware of the importance of prediction intervals.
Details
- Title
- Meta-analysis prediction intervals are under reported in sport and exercise medicine
- Authors
- David N Borg (Corresponding Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyFranco M Impellizzeri - University of Technology SydneySamantha J Borg - Queensland University of TechnologyKate P Hutchins - Queensland University of TechnologyIan B Stewart - Queensland University of TechnologyTamara Jones - The University of MelbourneBrenton J Baguley - Deakin UniversityLucas B R Orssatto - Deakin UniversityAaron J E Bach - Griffith UniversityJohn O Osborne - UiT The Arctic University of NorwayBenjamin S McMaster - Queensland University of TechnologyRobert L Buhmann - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Health - Sports & Exercise ScienceJoshua J Bon - Queensland University of TechnologyAdrian G Barnett - Queensland University of Technology
- Publication details
- Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, Vol.34(3), pp.1-10
- Publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
- Date published
- 2024
- DOI
- 10.1111/sms.14603
- ISSN
- 1600-0838; 0905-7188
- PMID
- 38501202
- Copyright note
- © 2024 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science In Sports published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Health; School of Health - Sports & Exercise Science
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991016298402621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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