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Published VersionCC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings, Vol.117(47), pp.1-11
2020
PMCID: PMC7703537
PMID: 33168735
Abstract
Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US–Russia war under business-as-usual fishing—similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.
Details
- Title
- Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
- Authors
- Kim J. N. Scherrer (Corresponding Author) - Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaCheryl S. Harrison (Author) - The University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyRyan F. Heneghan (Author) - Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaEric Galbraith (Author) - Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaCharles G. Bardeen (Author) - NSF National Center for Atmospheric ResearchJoshua Coupe (Author) - Rutgers, The State University of New JerseyJonas Jägermeyr (Author) - Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNicole S. Lovenduski (Author) - Institute of Arctic and Alpine ResearchAugust Luna (Author) - The University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyAlan Robock (Author) - Rutgers, The State University of New JerseyJessica Stevens (Author) - The University of Texas Rio Grande ValleySamantha Stevenson (Author) - University of California, Santa BarbaraOwen B. Toon (Author) - Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space PhysicsLili Xia (Author) - Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
- Publication details
- National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings, Vol.117(47), pp.1-11
- Audience
- PUBLIC
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Date published
- 2020
- DOI
- 10.1073/pnas.2008256117
- ISSN
- 1091-6490; 0027-8424
- PMID
- 33168735; PMC7703537
- Copyright note
- © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99744890002621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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