Journal article
Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth
Nature , Vol.585, pp.545-550
2020
Abstract
To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide1,2. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon3, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates2,3. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)4,5 may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported3 owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.
Details
- Title
- Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth
- Authors
- Susan C Cook-Patton (Author) - Nature ConservancySara M Leavitt (Author) - Nature ConservancyDavid Gibbs (Author) - World Resources InstituteNancy L Harris (Author) - World Resources InstituteKristine Lister (Author) - World Resources InstituteKristina J Anderson-Teixeira (Author) - Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteRussell D Briggs (Author) - State University of New YorkRobin Chazdon (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Tropical Forests & People Research CentreThomas W Crowther (Author) - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in ZurichPeter W Ellis (Author) - The Nature ConservancyHeather P Griscom (Author) - James Madison UniversityValentine Herrmann (Author) - Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteKaren D Holl (Author) - University of California, Santa CruzRichard A Houghton (Author) - Woodwell Climate Research CenterCecilia Larrosa (Author) - University of OxfordGuy Lomax (Author) - University of ExeterRichard Lucas (Author) - Aberystwyth UniversityPalle Madsen (Author) - InNovaSilva ApSYadvinder Malhi (Author) - University of OxfordJohn D Parker (Author) - Smithsonian Environmental Research CenterAlain Paquette (Author) - Université du QuébecKerryn Paul (Author) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationDevin Routh (Author) - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in ZurichStephen Roxburgh (Author) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationSassan Saatchi (Author) - National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationJohan van den Hoogen (Author) - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in ZurichWayne S Walker (Author) - Woodwell Climate Research CenterCharlotte E Wheeler (Author) - University of EdinburghStephen A Wood (Author) - Yale UniversityLiang Xu (Author) - National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationBronson W Griscom (Author) - Conservation International
- Publication details
- Nature , Vol.585, pp.545-550
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x
- ISSN
- 1476-4687
- Organisation Unit
- University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; Tropical Forests & People Research Centre; Forest Research Institute
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99482299502621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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