Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

Susan C Cook-Patton; Sara M Leavitt; David Gibbs; Nancy L Harris; Kristine Lister; Kristina J Anderson-Teixeira; Russell D Briggs; Robin Chazdon; Thomas W Crowther; Peter W Ellis; Heather P Griscom; Valentine Herrmann; Karen D Holl; Richard A Houghton; Cecilia Larrosa; Guy Lomax; Richard Lucas; Palle Madsen; Yadvinder Malhi; John D Parker; Alain Paquette; Kerryn Paul; Devin Routh; Stephen Roxburgh; Sassan Saatchi; Johan van den Hoogen; Wayne S Walker; Charlotte E Wheeler; Stephen A Wood; Liang Xu; Bronson W Griscom

doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x

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Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

Susan C Cook-Patton, Sara M Leavitt, David Gibbs, Nancy L Harris, Kristine Lister, Kristina J Anderson-Teixeira, Russell D Briggs, Robin Chazdon, Thomas W Crowther, Peter W Ellis, …

Nature , Vol.585, pp.545-550

2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x

PMID: 32968258

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Abstract

Measurement

Forest carbon

Growth

United States

Analysis

Protection and preservation

Forests and forestry

Comparative analysis

Carbon sequestration

To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide1,2. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon3, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates2,3. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)4,5 may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported3 owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.

Details

Title: Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth
Authors: Susan C Cook-Patton (Author) - Nature Conservancy
Sara M Leavitt (Author) - Nature Conservancy
David Gibbs (Author) - World Resources Institute
Nancy L Harris (Author) - World Resources Institute
Kristine Lister (Author) - World Resources Institute
Kristina J Anderson-Teixeira (Author) - Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
Russell D Briggs (Author) - State University of New York
Robin Chazdon (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Tropical Forests and People Research Centre
Thomas W Crowther (Author) - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
Peter W Ellis (Author) - The Nature Conservancy
Heather P Griscom (Author) - James Madison University
Valentine Herrmann (Author) - Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
Karen D Holl (Author) - University of California, Santa Cruz
Richard A Houghton (Author) - Woodwell Climate Research Center
Cecilia Larrosa (Author) - University of Oxford
Guy Lomax (Author) - University of Exeter
Richard Lucas (Author) - Aberystwyth University
Palle Madsen (Author) - InNovaSilva ApS
Yadvinder Malhi (Author) - University of Oxford
John D Parker (Author) - Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
Alain Paquette (Author) - Université du Québec
Kerryn Paul (Author) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Devin Routh (Author) - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
Stephen Roxburgh (Author) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Sassan Saatchi (Author) - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Johan van den Hoogen (Author) - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
Wayne S Walker (Author) - Woodwell Climate Research Center
Charlotte E Wheeler (Author) - University of Edinburgh
Stephen A Wood (Author) - Yale University
Liang Xu (Author) - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Bronson W Griscom (Author) - Conservation International
Publication details: Nature , Vol.585, pp.545-550
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Date published: 2020
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x
ISSN: 1476-4687
PMID: 32968258
Organisation Unit: Tropical Forests and People Research Centre; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; Forest Research Institute
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99482299502621
Output Type: Journal article

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