Long time series analysis of snow water equivalent across the Amu Darya water towers from remote sensing and in-situ records

A. Caiserman; S. Sadyrov; R.C. Sidle; H. Asadi; B. Jarihani; A. Qadamov; S. Muzafari

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103224

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Long time series analysis of snow water equivalent across the Amu Darya water towers from remote sensing and in-situ records

Journal article

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Long time series analysis of snow water equivalent across the Amu Darya water towers from remote sensing and in-situ records

A. Caiserman, S. Sadyrov, R.C. Sidle, H. Asadi, B. Jarihani, A. Qadamov and S. Muzafari

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol.64, pp.1-24

2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103224

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Abstract

FLDAS

High mountain cryosphere

Mount Rose snow tube

Remote sensing

Seasonal snow dynamics

Snow water equivalent

Trend analysis

Study region In high elevation watersheds of Central Asia, snow is the main source of discharge. Spatially and temporally distributed snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements in-situ or remotely sensed have the potential to estimate whether seasons in a given year will be water-abundant or water-scarce. Study focus Here we show the benefits of FLDAS-Central Asia SWE daily simulations retrieved since 2001 in a snow-fed basin of one of the water towers of Amu Darya. FLDAS estimations were compared with winter field measurements of SWE using a Mount Rose sampler. Despite its tendency to overestimate, FLDAS reliably captures the annual variability of SWE and reproduces temporal patterns with a RMSE of 107 mm. FLDAS was used to estimate the significance of nine snow-season metrics spanning accumulation and melt phases, trends with time. New hydrologic insights The eastern plateau experienced a shorter accumulation and melt season accompanied by a drier snowpack and faster melt rates, driven by its more arid climate, enhanced wind-driven snow redistribution, strong radiation, and higher potential for total residual loss. In contrast, glaciated areas in high elevations of the east and north basin exhibited increasing seasonal snow and wetter conditions in these remote areas with complex topography where in-situ data is unavailable. This study highlights the need for continuous ground-based monitoring of SWE, given the strong correlation between snowmelt and discharge; and to reduce estimation uncertainties in this region.

Details

Title: Long time series analysis of snow water equivalent across the Amu Darya water towers from remote sensing and in-situ records
Authors: A. Caiserman (Corresponding Author) - University of Central Asia
S. Sadyrov - University of Central Asia
R.C. Sidle - University of Central Asia
H. Asadi - University of Central Asia
B. Jarihani - University of the Sunshine Coast
A. Qadamov - University of Central Asia
S. Muzafari - University of Potsdam
Publication details: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol.64, pp.1-24
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date published: 2026
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103224
ISSN: 2214-5818
Data Availability: Data will be made available on request.
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991216251502621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Water Resources