Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Martin J. P Sullivan; Simon L Lewis; Kofi Affum-Baffoe; Carolina Castilho; Flavia Costa; Aida Cuni Sanchez; Corneille E. N Ewango; Wannes Hubau; Beatriz Marimon; Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza; Lan Qie; Bonaventure Sonke; Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez; Timothy R Baker; Roel J. W Brienen; Ted R Feldpausch; David Galbraith; Manuel Gloor; Yadvinder Malhi; John R Poulsen; Shin-Ichiro Aiba; Everton C Almeida; Edmar Almeida de Oliveira; Esteban Alvarez Davila; Patricia Alvarez Loayza; Ana Andrade; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Luiz E. O. C Aragao; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Eric J. M. M Arets; Luzmila Arroyo; Peter Ashton; Gerardo C Aymard; Fabricio B Baccaro; Lindsay F Banin; Christopher Baraloto; Plinio Barbosa Camargo; Jos Barlow; Jorcely Barroso; Jean-Francois Bastin; Sarah A Batterman; Hans Beeckman; Serge K Begne; Amy C Bennett; Erika Berenguer; Nicholas Berry; Lilian Blanc; Pascal Boeckx; Jan Bogaert; Damien Bonal; Frans Bongers; Matt Bradford; Francis Q Brearley; Terry Brncic; Foster Brown; Benoit Burban; Jose Luis Camargo; Wendeson Castro; Carlos Ceron; Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro; Victor Chama Moscoso; Jerome Chave; Eric Chezeaux; Connie J Clark; Fernanda Coelho de Souza; Murray Collins; James A Comiskey; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; Massiel Corrales Medina; Lola da Costa; Martin Dancak; Greta C Dargie; Stuart Davies; Nallaret Davila Cardozo; Thales de Haulleville; Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros; Jhon del Aguila Pasquel; Geraldine Derroire; Anthony Di Fiore; Aurelie Dourdain; Jean-Louis Doucet; Vincent Droissart; Luisa Fernanda Duque; Romeo Ekoungoulou; Fernando Elias; Terry Erwin; Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert; Sophie Fauset; Joice Ferreira; Gerardo Flores Llampazo; Ernest Foli; Andrew Ford; Martin Gilpin; Jefferson S Hall; Keith C Hamer; Alan C Hamilton; David J Harris; Terese B Hart; Radim Hedl; Rafael Herrera; Bruno Herault; Niro Higuchi; Annette Hladik; Euridice Honorio Coronado; Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco; Walter Huaraca Huasco; Kathryn J Jeffery; Eliana Jimenez-Rojas; Michelle Kalamandeen; Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo; Elizabeth Kearsley; Ricardo Keichi Umetsu; Lip Khoon Kho; Timothy Killeen; Kanehiro Kitayama; Bente Klitgaard; Alexander Koch; Nicolas Labriere; William Laurance; Miguel E Leal; Susan Laurance; Aurora Levesley; Adriano J. N Lima; Janvier Lisingo; Aline P Lopes; Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez; Tom Lovejoy; Jon C Lovett; Richard Lowe; William E Magnusson; Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte; Angelo Gilberto Manzatto; Ben Hur Marimon; Andrew R Marshall; Toby Marthews; Simone Matias de Almeida Reis; Colin Maycock; Karina Melgaco; Casimiro Mendoza; Vianet Mihindou; Faizah Metali; William Milliken; Edward T. A Mitchard; Paulo S Morandi; Hannah L Mossman; Laszlo Nagy; Henrique Nascimento; David Neill; Reuben Nilus; Percy Nunez Vargas; Walter Palacios; Nadir Pallqui Camacho; Julie Peacock; Colin Pendry; Maria Cristina Penuela Mora; Georgia C Pickavance; John Pipoly; Nigel Pitman; Maureen Playfair; Lourens Poorter; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; Richard Preziosi; Adriana Prieto; Richard B Primack; Hirma Ramirez-Angulo; Jan Reitsma; Maxime Rejou-Mechain; Zorayda Restrepo Correa; Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa; Lily Rodriguez Bayona; Anand Roopsind; Agustin Rudas; Ervan Rutishauser; Kamariah Abu Salim; Rafael P Salomao; Juliana Schietti; Douglas Sheil; Richarlly C Silva; Javier Silva Espejo; Camila Silva Valeria; Marcos Silveira; Murielle Simo-Droissart; Marcelo Fragomeni Simon; James Singh; Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva; Clement Stahl; Juliana Stropp; Rahayu Sukri; Terry Sunderland; Martin Svatek; Michael D Swaine; Varun Swamy; Hermann Taedoumg; Joey Talbot; James Taplin; David Taylor; Hans ter Steege; John Terborgh; Raquel Thomas; Sean C Thomas; Armando Torres-Lezama; Peter Umunay; Luis Valenzuela Gamarra; Geertje van der Heijden; Peter van der Hout; Peter van der Meer; Mark van Nieuwstadt; Hans Verbeeck; Ronald Vernimmen; Alberto Vicentini; Ima Celia Guimaraes Vieira; Emilio Vilanova Torre; Jason Vleminckx; Vincent Vos; Ophelia Wang; Lee J. T White; Simon Willcock; John T Woods; Verginia Wortel; Roderick Zagt; Lise Zemagho; Pieter A Zuidema; Joeri A Zwerts; Oliver L Phillips; Kenneth R Young

doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578

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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Martin J. P Sullivan, Simon L Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flavia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Marimon, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, …

Science, Vol.368(6493), pp.869-874

2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

PMID: 32439789

Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Details

Title: Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests
Authors: Martin J. P Sullivan (Author) - University of Leeds
Simon L Lewis (Author) - University of Leeds
Kofi Affum-Baffoe (Author) - Forestry Commission of Ghana
Carolina Castilho (Author) - Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
Flavia Costa (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Aida Cuni Sanchez (Author) - Colorado State University
Corneille E. N Ewango (Author) - Wildlife Conservation Society Democratic Republic of the Congo
Wannes Hubau (Author) - University of Leeds
Beatriz Marimon (Author) - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza (Author) - Jardín Botánico de Missouri (Peru)
Lan Qie (Author) - University of Lincoln
Bonaventure Sonke (Author) - Université de Yaoundé I
Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez (Author) - Jardín Botánico de Missouri (Peru)
Timothy R Baker (Author) - University of Leeds
Roel J. W Brienen (Author) - University of Leeds
Ted R Feldpausch (Author) - University of Exeter
David Galbraith (Author) - University of Leeds
Manuel Gloor (Author) - University of Leeds
Yadvinder Malhi (Author) - University of Oxford
John R Poulsen (Author) - Duke University
Shin-Ichiro Aiba (Author) - Hokkaido University
Everton C Almeida (Author) - Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará
Edmar Almeida de Oliveira (Author) - Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso
Esteban Alvarez Davila (Author) - Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia
Patricia Alvarez Loayza (Author) - Duke University
Ana Andrade (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Simone Aparecida Vieira (Author) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
Luiz E. O. C Aragao (Author) - University of Exeter
Alejandro Araujo-Murakami (Author) - Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno
Eric J. M. M Arets (Author) - Wageningen University & Research
Luzmila Arroyo (Author) - Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno
Peter Ashton (Author) - Harvard University
Gerardo C Aymard (Author) - Universidad Nacional Experimental de los Llanos Occidentales Ezequiel Zamora
Fabricio B Baccaro (Author) - Universidade Federal do Amazonas
Lindsay F Banin (Author) - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Christopher Baraloto (Author) - Florida International University
Plinio Barbosa Camargo (Author) - University of Sao Paulo
Jos Barlow (Author) - Lancaster University
Jorcely Barroso (Author) - Universidade Federal do Acre
Jean-Francois Bastin (Author) - Ghent University
Sarah A Batterman (Author) - University of Leeds
Hans Beeckman (Author) - Royal Museum for Central Africa
Serge K Begne (Author) - University of Leeds
Amy C Bennett (Author) - University of Leeds
Erika Berenguer (Author) - University of Oxford
Nicholas Berry (Author) - The Landscapes and Livelihoods Group
Lilian Blanc (Author) - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
Pascal Boeckx (Author) - Ghent University
Jan Bogaert (Author) - University of Liège
Damien Bonal (Author) - National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment
Frans Bongers (Author) - Wageningen University & Research
Matt Bradford (Author) - CSIRO Land and Water
Francis Q Brearley (Author) - Manchester Metropolitan University
Terry Brncic (Author) - Wildlife Conservation Society Democratic Republic of the Congo
Foster Brown (Author) - Woodwell Climate Research Center
Benoit Burban (Author) - University of French Guiana
Jose Luis Camargo (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Wendeson Castro (Author) - Universidade Federal do Acre
Carlos Ceron (Author) - Central University of Ecuador
Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro (Author) - Universidade Federal do Acre
Victor Chama Moscoso (Author) - Jardín Botánico de Missouri (Peru)
Jerome Chave (Author) - French National Centre for Scientific Research
Eric Chezeaux (Author) - Rougier Gabon
Connie J Clark (Author) - Duke University
Fernanda Coelho de Souza (Author) - University of Leeds
Murray Collins (Author) - University of Edinburgh
James A Comiskey (Author) - National Park Service
Fernando Cornejo Valverde (Author)
Massiel Corrales Medina (Author) - National University of Saint Augustine
Lola da Costa (Author) - Universidade Federal do Pará
Martin Dancak (Author) - Palacký University Olomouc
Greta C Dargie (Author) - University of Leeds
Stuart Davies (Author) - Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Nallaret Davila Cardozo (Author) - Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana
Thales de Haulleville (Author) - Royal Museum for Central Africa
Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros (Author) - Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
Jhon del Aguila Pasquel (Author) - Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
Geraldine Derroire (Author) - University of French Guiana
Anthony Di Fiore (Author) - The University of Texas at Austin
Aurelie Dourdain (Author) - University of French Guiana
Jean-Louis Doucet (Author) - University of Liège
Vincent Droissart (Author) - University of Montpellier
Luisa Fernanda Duque (Author) - Fundación Con Vida
Romeo Ekoungoulou (Author) - Beijing Forestry University
Fernando Elias (Author) - Universidade Federal do Pará
Terry Erwin (Author) - Smithsonian Institution
Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert (Author) - University of Birmingham
Sophie Fauset (Author) - University of Plymouth
Joice Ferreira (Author) - Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
Gerardo Flores Llampazo (Author) - Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University
Ernest Foli (Author) - Forestry Research Institute of Ghana
Andrew Ford (Author) - CSIRO Land and Water
Martin Gilpin (Author) - University of Leeds
Jefferson S Hall (Author) - Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Keith C Hamer (Author) - University of Leeds
Alan C Hamilton (Author)
David J Harris (Author) - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Terese B Hart (Author) - Lukuru Foundation
Radim Hedl (Author) - Czech Academy of Sciences
Rafael Herrera (Author) - Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas
Bruno Herault (Author) - Ghent University
Niro Higuchi (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Annette Hladik (Author) - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle
Euridice Honorio Coronado (Author) - Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco (Author) - National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco
Walter Huaraca Huasco (Author) - National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco
Kathryn J Jeffery (Author) - University of Stirling
Eliana Jimenez-Rojas (Author) - Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Michelle Kalamandeen (Author) - University of Leeds
Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo (Author) - Université de Kisangani
Elizabeth Kearsley (Author) - Ghent University
Ricardo Keichi Umetsu (Author) - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Lip Khoon Kho (Author) - Malaysian Palm Oil Board
Timothy Killeen (Author) - Agteca
Kanehiro Kitayama (Author) - Kyoto University
Bente Klitgaard (Author) - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
Alexander Koch (Author) - University of Hong Kong
Nicolas Labriere (Author) - French National Centre for Scientific Research
William Laurance (Author) - James Cook University
Miguel E Leal (Author) - Wildlife Conservation Society Uganda
Susan Laurance (Author) - James Cook University
Aurora Levesley (Author) - University of Leeds
Adriano J. N Lima (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Janvier Lisingo (Author) - Université de Kisangani
Aline P Lopes (Author) - National Institute for Space Research
Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez (Author) - University of Leeds
Tom Lovejoy (Author) - George Mason University
Jon C Lovett (Author) - University of Leeds
Richard Lowe (Author) - University of Ibadan
William E Magnusson (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte (Author) - Universidade dos Açores
Angelo Gilberto Manzatto (Author) - Universidade Federal de Rondônia
Ben Hur Marimon (Author) - Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso
Andrew R Marshall (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Tropical Forests & People Research Centre
Toby Marthews (Author) - Universiti of Malaysia Sabah
Simone Matias de Almeida Reis (Author) - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Colin Maycock (Author) - Universiti of Malaysia Sabah
Karina Melgaco (Author) - University of Leeds
Casimiro Mendoza (Author) - University of San Simón
Vianet Mihindou (Author) - National Agency for National Parks
Faizah Metali (Author) - Universiti Brunei Darussalam
William Milliken (Author) - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
Edward T. A Mitchard (Author) - University of Edinburgh
Paulo S Morandi (Author) - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Hannah L Mossman (Author) - Manchester Metropolitan University
Laszlo Nagy (Author) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
Henrique Nascimento (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
David Neill (Author) - Universidade do Estado do Amazonas
Reuben Nilus (Author) - Sabah Forestry Department
Percy Nunez Vargas (Author) - Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas
Walter Palacios (Author) - Universidad Técnica del Norte
Nadir Pallqui Camacho (Author) - University of Leeds
Julie Peacock (Author) - University of Leeds
Colin Pendry (Author) - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Maria Cristina Penuela Mora (Author) - Universidad Regional Amazónica IKIAM
Georgia C Pickavance (Author) - University of Leeds
John Pipoly (Author)
Nigel Pitman (Author) - Field Museum of Natural History
Maureen Playfair (Author) - Anton de Kom University of Suriname
Lourens Poorter (Author) - Wageningen University & Research
Axel Dalberg Poulsen (Author) - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Richard Preziosi (Author) - Manchester Metropolitan University
Adriana Prieto (Author) - Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Richard B Primack (Author) - Boston University
Hirma Ramirez-Angulo (Author) - University of the Andes
Jan Reitsma (Author)
Maxime Rejou-Mechain (Author) - University of Montpellier
Zorayda Restrepo Correa (Author) - Fundación Con Vida
Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Lily Rodriguez Bayona (Author)
Anand Roopsind (Author)
Agustin Rudas (Author) - Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Ervan Rutishauser (Author) - Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Kamariah Abu Salim (Author) - Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Rafael P Salomao (Author) - Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia
Juliana Schietti (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Douglas Sheil (Author) - Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Richarlly C Silva (Author) - Universidade Federal do Acre
Javier Silva Espejo (Author) - National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco
Camila Silva Valeria (Author) - Lancaster University
Marcos Silveira (Author) - Universidade Federal do Acre
Murielle Simo-Droissart (Author) - Université de Yaoundé I
Marcelo Fragomeni Simon (Author) - Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
James Singh (Author) - Guyana Forestry Commission
Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva (Author) - Jardín Botánico de Missouri (Peru)
Clement Stahl (Author) - University of French Guiana
Juliana Stropp (Author) - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Rahayu Sukri (Author) - Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Terry Sunderland (Author) - Center for International Forestry Research
Martin Svatek (Author) - Mendel University in Brno
Michael D Swaine (Author) - University of Aberdeen
Varun Swamy (Author) - San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Research
Hermann Taedoumg (Author) - Université de Yaoundé I
Joey Talbot (Author) - University of Leeds
James Taplin (Author) - Innovate UK
David Taylor (Author) - National University of Singapore
Hans ter Steege (Author) - Naturalis Biodiversity Center
John Terborgh (Author) - Duke University
Raquel Thomas (Author)
Sean C Thomas (Author) - University of Toronto
Armando Torres-Lezama (Author) - Universidad de Los Andes
Peter Umunay (Author) - Wildlife Conservation Society
Luis Valenzuela Gamarra (Author) - Jardín Botánico de Missouri (Peru)
Geertje van der Heijden (Author) - University of Nottingham
Peter van der Hout (Author)
Peter van der Meer (Author) - Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences
Mark van Nieuwstadt (Author) - Utrecht University
Hans Verbeeck (Author) - Ghent University
Ronald Vernimmen (Author)
Alberto Vicentini (Author) - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Ima Celia Guimaraes Vieira (Author) - Instituto Federal do Acre
Emilio Vilanova Torre (Author) - University of Washington
Jason Vleminckx (Author) - Florida International University
Vincent Vos (Author)
Ophelia Wang (Author) - Northern Arizona University
Lee J. T White (Author) - University of Stirling
Simon Willcock (Author) - Bangor University
John T Woods (Author) - University of Liberia
Verginia Wortel (Author)
Roderick Zagt (Author)
Lise Zemagho (Author) - Université de Yaoundé I
Pieter A Zuidema (Author) - Wageningen University & Research
Joeri A Zwerts (Author) - Utrecht University
Oliver L Phillips (Author) - University of Leeds
Kenneth R Young (Author) - The University of Texas at Austin
Publication details: Science, Vol.368(6493), pp.869-874
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw7578
ISSN: 1095-9203
PMID: 32439789
Organisation Unit: Forest Research Institute; Tropical Forests & People Research Centre; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99482294202621
Output Type: Journal article