IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045

Hong Sun; Pouya Saeedi; Suvi Karuranga; Moritz Pinkepank; Katherine Ogurtsova; Bruce B Duncan; Caroline Stein; Abdul Basit; Juliana C.N Chan; Jean Claude Mbanya; Meda E Pavkov; Ambady Ramachandaran; Sarah H Wild; Steven James; William H Herman; Ping Zhang; Christian Bommer; Shihchen Kuo; Edward J Boyko; Dianna J Magliano

doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2021.109119

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IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045

Journal article

Peer reviewed

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045

Hong Sun, Pouya Saeedi, Suvi Karuranga, Moritz Pinkepank, Katherine Ogurtsova, Bruce B Duncan, Caroline Stein, Abdul Basit, Juliana C.N Chan, Jean Claude Mbanya, …

Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, Vol.183, pp.1-13

2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2021.109119

PMCID: PMC11057359

PMID: 34879977

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Abstract

Epidemiology

Diabetes

Health economics

International Diabetes Federation

Prevalence

Projections

Aims: To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045. Methods: A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence. Results: The global diabetes prevalence in 20–79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75–79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045. Conclusions: Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world’s adult population now have this condition.

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Title: IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045
Authors: Hong Sun (Author) - International Diabetes Federation
Pouya Saeedi (Author) - International Diabetes Federation
Suvi Karuranga (Author) - International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium
Moritz Pinkepank (Author) - International Diabetes Federation
Katherine Ogurtsova (Author) - Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf
Bruce B Duncan (Author) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Caroline Stein (Author) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abdul Basit (Author) - Baqai Medical University
Juliana C.N Chan (Author) - Chinese University of Hong Kong
Jean Claude Mbanya (Author) - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Meda E Pavkov (Author) - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Ambady Ramachandaran (Author) - India Diabetes Research Foundation
Sarah H Wild (Author) - University of Edinburgh
Steven James (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine - Legacy
William H Herman (Author) - University of Michigan
Ping Zhang (Author) - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Christian Bommer (Author) - University of Göttingen
Shihchen Kuo (Author) - University of Michigan
Edward J Boyko (Author) - VA Puget Sound Health Care System
Dianna J Magliano (Author) - Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute
Publication details: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, Vol.183, pp.1-13
Publisher: Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Date published: 2022
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2021.109119
ISSN: 1872-8227
PMID: 34879977; PMC11057359
Organisation Unit: School of Health - Nursing; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine - Legacy
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99594408502621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Endocrinology & Metabolism

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