Journal article
How to identify and interpret weak signals of change in the forest bioeconomy
Forest Policy and Economics, Vol.157, pp.1-13
2023
Abstract
Weak signals, the first signs of a potentially emerging issue that could disrupt current trends and megatrends, are hidden among disconnected pieces of information. Analyzing weak signals can help decision makers generate preparedness and a rapid-response capacity for possible systemic changes in the forest bioeconomy, where weak signals have not been studied extensively. This exploratory study sought to understand how to identify and interpret weak signals of change that may have an impact on the forest bioeconomy. An international panel of experts in the forest bioeconomy and in foresight provided their views through a two-stage Real-Time Delphi method which utilized the multiple rounds of traditional Delphi and the instantaneous feedback of the Real-Time Delphi method. This study introduces four conceptual frameworks to use when searching for weak signals: Internal/external operating environment, the Multi-level perspective, the Three Horizons Framework, and Complexity theory. These conceptual frameworks were applied in the analysis of collected data with the aim of developing the theory and practice on how to identify and interpret weak signals. According to the results, observations beyond the traditional dominating operating environment and a combination of observations from various sources could help to identify weak signals that may affect the forest bioeconomy. The Real-Time Delphi insights suggest that weak signal analysis becomes stronger via collaboration and interaction between futures specialists and forest bioeconomy experts.
Details
- Title
- How to identify and interpret weak signals of change in the forest bioeconomy
- Authors
- Tuomas Mauno (Corresponding Author) - University of Eastern FinlandFellice Gabrielle Catelo (Author) - University of Eastern FinlandDavid N. Bengston (Author) - US Forest ServiceJouni Pykäläinen (Author) - University of Eastern FinlandTeppo Hujala (Author) - University of Eastern Finland
- Publication details
- Forest Policy and Economics, Vol.157, pp.1-13
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Date published
- 2023
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103075
- ISSN
- 1872-7050
- Copyright note
- © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Data Availability
- Collected data to this article (completed and anonymized Real-Time Delphi stages) can be found online at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8402507.
- Grant note
- The study was funded by the Saastamoinen Foundation and the Niemi Foundation. This study was done in affiliation with the Academy of Finland Flagship ”Forest-Human-Machine Interplay – Building Resilience, Redefining Value Networks and Enabling Meaningful Experiences (UNITE), decision no 337127.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Forest Research Institute
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991223529702621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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