Journal article
Growing nickel supply from the tropics threatens priority conservation areas
Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol.Advanced access
06-May-2026
PMID: 42091687
Abstract
Increasing global demand for nickel, an essential metal in low-carbon technologies and stainless steel, is driving a surge in mining in strongholds of tropical biodiversity. We use a global mine-by-mine supply scenario model to quantify the trade-off between meeting future nickel demand for decarbonization and conserving areas critical for achieving biodiversity and climate targets. Nickel laterites-near-surface deposits often found beneath tropical forests-account for 78 to 83% of modelled supply between 2025 and 2050. Over this timeframe, half of mined nickel threatens the top 10% of global land areas most critical for conserving biodiversity and storing carbon, but avoiding mining in these areas increases the risk of supply shortfalls. In addition, 53 to 60% of future supply comes from coastal mines, which threaten the top 10% of global priority areas for conserving marine biodiversity. While deep-sea resource development remains controversial, we show that a moratorium may increase reliance on nickel sourced from high-priority areas for conserving terrestrial and coastal marine biodiversity. Securing ecologically responsible nickel supply requires integrating terrestrial and marine conservation priorities to inform sourcing and mine development decisions, alongside efforts to mitigate unavoidable impacts, increase resource exploration and reduce long-term demand.
Details
- Title
- Growing nickel supply from the tropics threatens priority conservation areas
- Authors
- Jayden Hyman (Corresponding Author) - The University of QueenslandLaura J Sonter - The University of QueenslandEve McDonald-Madden - The University of QueenslandJames E M Watson - The University of QueenslandEvelyn M Mervine - The University of QueenslandJoseph W Bull - University of OxfordChloe Dawson - The University of QueenslandThomas J Lloyd - The University of QueenslandSebastian Luckeneder - Stockholm Resilience CentreMartine Maron - The University of QueenslandBernardo Mendonca Severiano - University of Technology SydneySarah Raymond - University of OxfordThomas A Schlacher - University of the Sunshine CoastRachakonda Sreekar - The University of QueenslandRick K Valenta - The University of QueenslandPiero Visconti - International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisTim T Werner - The University of MelbourneStephen A Northey - University of Technology Sydney
- Publication details
- Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol.Advanced access
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41559-026-03068-4
- ISSN
- 2397-334X
- PMID
- 42091687
- Copyright note
- This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Data Availability
- The dataset and input files required to reproduce the results of the PEMMSS model are available in the Supplementary Information.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991228960502621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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