Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Graham D. Ogle; Fei Wang; Aveni Haynes; Gabriel A. Gregory; Thomas W. King; Kylie Deng; Dana Dabelea; Steven James; Alicia J. Jenkins; Xia Li; Ronald C.W. Ma; David M. Maahs; Richard A. Oram; Catherine Pihoker; Jannet Svensson; Zhiguang Zhou; Dianna J. Magliano; Jayanthi Maniam

doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277

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Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Journal article

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Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

Graham D. Ogle, Fei Wang, Aveni Haynes, Gabriel A. Gregory, Thomas W. King, Kylie Deng, Dana Dabelea, Steven James, Alicia J. Jenkins, Xia Li, …

Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, Vol.225, pp.1-12

2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277

PMID: 40412624

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Abstract

Adults

Children

Incidence

Mortality

Prevalence

Type 1 diabetes

Aims: Globally, symptomatic type 1 diabetes (T1D) prevalence varies markedly. The International Diabetes Federation 11thEdition Atlas/T1D Index Version 3.0 estimated 2025 numbers for 202 countries/territories (“countries”), and projected to2040. Methods: The T1D Index model, a Markov model with sub-models for incidence-over-time, adult incidence, and mortality-over-time, was updated with recent population-based T1D incidence, mortality and prevalence studies. For countries without studies, data were extrapolated from countries with similarsettings. Results: There are estimated 9.5 million people living with T1D globally (compared to 8.4 million in 2021, a 13 % increase), with 1.0 million of these aged 0–14, and 0.8 million aged 15–19 years. In lower-income countries, prevalent cases increased by 20 % from 1.8 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2025. Incident cases in 2025 are an estimated 513,000 (164,000 aged 0–14 and 58,000 aged 15–19 years), with incidence increasing by 2.4 % in the last year. Premature deaths are estimated at 174,000, with 17.2 % of these due to non-diagnosis soon after clinical onset. The estimated remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old child diagnosed with T1D in 2025 varies between countries from 6 to 66 years. There are still no data available for 119 countries. The projectedT1D population for 2040 is estimated to be14.7 million. Conclusions: The number of global T1D cases is rising quickly, especially in lower-income settings, due to increasing diagnosed incidence, falling mortality and ageing, and population growth. Contemporary data are unavailable for over 50% of all countries, highlighting need for epidemiological studies.

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Title: Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0
Authors: Graham D. Ogle (Corresponding Author) - The University of Sydney
Fei Wang - Breakthrough
Aveni Haynes - Diabetes Australia
Gabriel A. Gregory - Diabetes Australia
Thomas W. King - Breakthrough
Kylie Deng - Breakthrough
Dana Dabelea - University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus
Steven James - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Health - Nursing
Alicia J. Jenkins - Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute
Xia Li - Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University
Ronald C.W. Ma - The Chinese University of Hong Kong
David M. Maahs - Stanford University
Richard A. Oram - University of Exeter
Catherine Pihoker - University of Washington
Jannet Svensson - Herlev Hospital
Zhiguang Zhou - Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University
Dianna J. Magliano - Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute
Jayanthi Maniam - Diabetes Australia
Publication details: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, Vol.225, pp.1-12
Publisher: Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Date published: 2025
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112277
ISSN: 1872-8227; 0168-8227
PMID: 40412624
Copyright note: © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc-nd/4.0/).
Grant note: The work was funded by Breakthrough T1D, and a grant #2208–05490 to the Life for a Child Program of Diabetes Australia from The Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust.
Organisation Unit: School of Health - Nursing
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991137206002621
Output Type: Journal article

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