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Ecology and Evolution - 2025 - Brunton - From Safe to Stranded Land Use and Climate Change Threaten Habitat of Iconic1.35 MB
Published VersionCC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
From Safe to Stranded: Land Use and Climate Change Threaten Habitat of Iconic Australian Macropods
Ecology and Evolution, Vol.15(10), pp.1-14
2025
PMID: 41080480
Abstract
As the footprint from human population increases, the associated modification and conversion of natural landscapes in a changing climate places significant pressure on terrestrial wildlife. Since areas of high biodiversity are most affected by urbanisation, there is a need to identify future challenges for species in these regions in the context of intensifying climate change. We investigated habitat dynamics for seven Macropodid species found in the rapidly urbanising, biodiverse Southeast Queensland (SEQ) region of Australia. Habitat suitability was modelled using presence-only occurrence data (2000-2023) in combination with bioclimatic and landscape variables. We employed a balanced Random Forest algorithm to model species distributions, project current and potential habitat and identify key bioclimatic and landscape factors influencing conservation management. A greater amount of predicted current suitable habitat (over one third) for eastern grey kangaroos, swamp wallabies and red-necked wallabies is within the urban footprint, than in protected areas. Conversely, most current suitable habitats for the other species were predicted to occur in protected areas. Worryingly, a decline in suitable habitat (83%-96% reduction) is projected for all seven species under future climate scenarios. Our results reveal the vulnerability of macropods in the region which face compounded threats from urbanisation and climate-induced habitat loss. This study's findings highlight a complex set of factors that could hinder macropod species' adaptability to future environmental changes, elevating 'least concern' species to 'of concern'. Combined pressures from climate change, urbanisation and habitat loss necessitate a broad, adaptive approach to wildlife conservation in human-dominated landscapes.
Details
- Title
- From Safe to Stranded: Land Use and Climate Change Threaten Habitat of Iconic Australian Macropods
- Authors
- Elizabeth Ann Brunton (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and EngineeringAaron James Brunton - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and EngineeringGabriel Conroy - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Publication details
- Ecology and Evolution, Vol.15(10), pp.1-14
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
- Date published
- 2025
- DOI
- 10.1002/ece3.72236
- ISSN
- 2045-7758
- PMID
- 41080480
- Copyright note
- © 2025 The Author(s). Ecology and Evolution published by British Ecological Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Data Availability
- All files with R code to create the spatial models are available at AaronBrunton/Macropod_climatemodels. Due to the sensitive nature of some occurrence points obtained from private property, location data are available with correspondence from the author.
- Grant note
- This work was supported by Sunshine Coast Council.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Centre for Bioinnovation
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991173341502621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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