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Framing effects in inflation expectation surveys: Evidence from a randomized field experiment
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Framing effects in inflation expectation surveys: Evidence from a randomized field experiment

Puneet Vatsa and Alan Renwick
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Vol.51, pp.1-5
2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101233
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Published Version Open Access CC BY V4.0

Abstract

In 2022, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand switched from range-based to open-ended questions about inflation expectations in its household expectations survey. The effects of this change remain unexplored. To address this gap, we conducted a field experiment using a nationally representative sample of 800 respondents, randomly assigned to one of the two formats. We estimated the average treatment effect to be 2.90 percentage points, with respondents exposed to the open-ended format reporting significantly higher one-year inflation expectations than those given predefined ranges. To assess whether this effect was present beyond the mean, we estimated quantile regression at the 50th percentile. The results revealed a statistically significant median difference of 1.44 percentage points, indicating that framing effects are also evident at the center of the distribution and are not solely driven by outliers. These findings confirm the sensitivity of inflation expectations to survey design and carry direct implications for how post-2022 data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand should be interpreted.

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