Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change

Yuri Niella; Paul A Butcher; Bonnie Holmes; Adam Barnett; Robert Harcourt

doi:10.1007/s00442-021-05075-7

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Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change

Yuri Niella, Paul A Butcher, Bonnie Holmes, Adam Barnett and Robert Harcourt

Oecologia, Vol.198(1), pp.111-124

2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-021-05075-7

PMID: 34787703

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Abstract

animal telemetry

East Australian current

environmental correlates

Galeocerdo cuvier

shark-human interaction

species distribution model

tiger shark

Globally, marine animal distributions are shifting in response to a changing climate. These shifts are usually considered at the species level, but individuals are likely to differ in how they respond to the changing conditions. Here, we investigate how movement behaviour and, therefore, redistribution, would differ by sex and maturation class in a wide-ranging marine predator. We tracked 115 tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) from 2002 to 2020 and forecast class-specific distributions through to 2030, including environmental factors and predicted occurrence of potential prey. Generalised Linear and Additive Models revealed that water temperature change, particularly at higher latitudes, was the factor most associated with shark movements. Females dispersed southwards during periods of warming temperatures, and while juvenile females preferred a narrow thermal range between 22 and 23 °C, adult female and juvenile male presence was correlated with either lower (< 22 °C) or higher (> 23 °C) temperatures. During La Niña, sharks moved towards higher latitudes and used shallower isobaths. Inclusion of predicted distribution of their putative prey significantly improved projections of suitable habitats for all shark classes, compared to simpler models using temperature alone. Tiger shark range off the east coast of Australia is predicted to extend ~ 3.5° south towards the east coast of Tasmania, particularly for juvenile males. Our framework highlights the importance of combining long-term movement data with multi-factor habitat projections to identify heterogeneity within species when predicting consequences of climate change. Recognising intraspecific variability will improve conservation and management strategies and help anticipate broader ecosystem consequences of species redistribution due to ocean warming.

Details

Title: Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change
Authors: Yuri Niella (Corresponding Author) - Macquarie University
Paul A Butcher (Author) - New South Wales Department of Primary Industries
Bonnie Holmes (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Adam Barnett (Author) - James Cook University
Robert Harcourt (Author) - Macquarie University
Publication details: Oecologia, Vol.198(1), pp.111-124
Publisher: Springer
Date published: 2022
DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-05075-7
ISSN: 1432-1939; 0029-8549
PMID: 34787703
Copyright note: Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99584807402621
Output Type: Journal article

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