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Published VersionCC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Forecast-ready models to support fisheries' adaptation to global variability and change
Fisheries Oceanography, Vol.32(4), pp.405-417
2023
Appears in UniSC Supported Open Access Outputs
Abstract
Ocean and climate drivers affect the distribution and abundance of marine life on a global scale. Marine ecological forecasting seeks to predict how living marine resources respond to physical variability and change, enabling proactive decision making to support climate adaptation. However, the skill of ecological forecasts is constrained by the skill of underlying models of both ocean state and species environment relationships. As a test of the skill of data driven forecasts for fisheries, we developed predictive models of catch per unit effort (CPUE) of tuna and billfish across the southwest Pacific Ocean, using a 12 year time series of catch data and a large ensemble climate reanalysis. Descriptors of water column structure, particularly temperature at depth and upper ocean heat content, emerged as useful predictors of CPUE across species. Enhancing forecast skill over sub seasonal to multi year timescales in any system is likely to require the inclusion of sub surface ocean data and explicit consideration of regional physical dynamics.
Details
- Title
- Forecast-ready models to support fisheries' adaptation to global variability and change
- Authors
- Kylie Scales (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and EngineeringThomas Moore (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)Bernadette Sloyan (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)Claire M Spillman (Author) - Bureau of MeteorologyJ. Paige Eveson (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)Toby A Patterson (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)Ashley Williams (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)Alistair James Hobday (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)Jason R Hartog (Author) - CSIRO Environment (Australia)
- Publication details
- Fisheries Oceanography, Vol.32(4), pp.405-417
- Publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
- Date published
- 2023
- DOI
- 10.1111/fog.12636
- ISSN
- 1365-2419; 1054-6006
- Copyright note
- This is an open access article under the terms of theCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivsLicense, which permits use and distribution in anymedium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2023 The Authors.Fisheries Oceanographypublished by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
- Grant note
- 2017-004 / Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
- Organisation Unit
- University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; GeneCology Research Centre - Legacy; School of Health and Sport Sciences - Legacy; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99717696802621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web Of Science research areas
- Fisheries
- Oceanography
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Source: InCites