Journal article
Food Prices and Inflation Expectations in New Zealand
Agribusiness, Vol.Advanced access
30-Apr-2026
Appears in UniSC Supported Open Access Outputs
Abstract
Food prices are conspicuous, and spending on food constitutes a considerable share of household expenditure. In this study, we use partially identified Bayesian structural vector autoregression models to analyze the effects of food price shocks on core inflation and 1- and 5-year inflation expectations in New Zealand. Our findings show that food price shocks caused a slightly delayed yet persistent rise in 1-year inflation expectations, while 5-year expectations and core inflation were largely unaffected. These shocks explained 9.40% of the variability in 1-year inflation expectations but only 4.47% in 5-year expectations. Furthermore, counterfactual analyses reveal that 1-year inflation expectations would have been lower over the period 2020-2023 in the absence of food price shocks. In contrast, 5-year inflation expectations would not have been materially different.
Details
- Title
- Food Prices and Inflation Expectations in New Zealand
- Authors
- Puneet Vatsa (Corresponding Author) - University of the Sunshine CoastGabriel Pino - Universidad Diego PortalesAlex Acheampong - Bond University
- Publication details
- Agribusiness, Vol.Advanced access
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
- DOI
- 10.1002/agr.70102
- ISSN
- 1520-6297
- Copyright note
- © 2026 The Author(s). Agribusiness published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Business and Creative Industries
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991229307402621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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