Evidence for the ‘safety in density’ effect for cyclists: validation of agent-based modelling results

Jason Thompson; Jasper S Wijnands; Suzanne Mavoa; Katherine Scully; Mark R Stevenson

doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2018-042763

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Evidence for the ‘safety in density’ effect for cyclists: validation of agent-based modelling results

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Evidence for the ‘safety in density’ effect for cyclists: validation of agent-based modelling results

Jason Thompson, Jasper S Wijnands, Suzanne Mavoa, Katherine Scully and Mark R Stevenson

Injury Prevention, Vol.25(5), pp.379-385

2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2018-042763

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Abstract

The safety in numbers (SiN) effect for cyclists is widely observed but remains poorly understood. Although most studies investigating the SiN phenomenon have focused on behavioural adaptation to 'numbers' of cyclists in the road network, previous work in simulated environments has suggested SiN may instead be driven by increases in local cyclist spatial density, which prevents drivers from attempting to move through groups of oncoming cyclists. This study therefore set out to validate the results of prior simulation studies in a real-world environment. Time-gap analysis of cyclists passing through an intersection was conducted using 5 hours of video observation of a single intersection in the city of Melbourne, Australia, where motorists were required to 'yield' to oncoming cyclists. Results demonstrated that potential collisions between motor vehicles and cyclists reduced with increasing cyclists per minute passing through the intersection. These results successfully validate those observed under simulated conditions, supporting evidence of a proposed causal mechanism related to safety in density rather than SiN, per se. Implications of these results for transportation planners, cyclists and transportation safety researchers are discussed, suggesting that increased cyclist safety could be achieved through directing cyclists towards focused, strategic corridors rather than dispersed across a network.

Details

Title: Evidence for the ‘safety in density’ effect for cyclists: validation of agent-based modelling results
Authors: Jason Thompson (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts, Business and Law
Jasper S Wijnands (Author) - University of Melbourne
Suzanne Mavoa (Author) - University of Melbourne
Katherine Scully (Author) - University of Melbourne
Mark R Stevenson (Author) - University of Melbourne
Publication details: Injury Prevention, Vol.25(5), pp.379-385
Publisher: B M J Group
Date published: 2019
DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2018-042763
ISSN: 1353-8047
Grants: Designing injury rehabilitation schemes for transport systems of tomorrow, DE180101411, Australian Research Council (Australia, Canberra) - ARC
Organisation Unit: Centre for Human Factors and Systems Science
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99451365702621
Output Type: Journal article

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