Files and links (2)
Evaluation of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 incidence rates across nine African countries an interrupted time series study1.11 MB
Published VersionCC BY-NC V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Evaluation of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 incidence rates across nine African countries: an interrupted time series study
Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Transactions, Vol.115(10), pp.1174-1183
2021
PMCID: PMC7989183
PMID: 33690835
Appears in COVID-19 Research
Abstract
Background:
Border closure is one of the policy changes implemented to mitigate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated the effect of border closure on the incidence rate of COVID-19 across nine African countries.
Methods:
An interrupted time series analysis was used to assess COVID-19 incidence rates in Egypt, Tunisia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa (SA). Data were collected between 14 February and 19 July 2020 from online data repositories. The linear trend and magnitude of change were evaluated using the itsa function with ordinary least-squares regression in Stata with a 7-d deferred interruption point, which allows a period of diffusion post-border closure.
Results:
Overall, the countries recorded an increase in the incidence rate of COVID-19 after border closure. However, when compared with matched control groups, SA, Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt and Kenya showed a higher incidence rate trend. In contrast, Ethiopia, DRC and Tunisia showed a lower trend compared with their controls.
Conclusions:
The implementation of border closures within African countries had minimal effect on the incidence of COVID-19. The inclusion of other control measures such as enhanced testing capacity and improved surveillance activities will reveal the effectiveness of border closure measures.
Details
- Title
- Evaluation of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 incidence rates across nine African countries: an interrupted time series study
- Authors
- Theophilus I Emeto (Corresponding Author) - James Cook UniversityFaith O. Alele (Author) - James Cook UniversityOlayinka S. Ilesanmi (Author) - University of Ibadan
- Publication details
- Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Transactions, Vol.115(10), pp.1174-1183
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Date published
- 2021
- DOI
- 10.1093/trstmh/trab033
- ISSN
- 1878-3503; 0035-9203
- PMID
- 33690835; PMC7989183
- Copyright note
- © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
- Organisation Unit
- School of Health - Public Health
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99967697702621
- Output Type
- Journal article
Metrics
18 Record Views
InCites Highlights
These are selected metrics from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool, related to this output
- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web Of Science research areas
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
- Tropical Medicine
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:
Source: InCites