Journal article
Evaluating the performance of an ice hockey team using interactive phases of play
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, Vol.20(2), pp.159-166
2009
Abstract
This study measures the interaction between two opposing teams in ice hockey by regressing a number of performance measures to a single measure which enables assessment of a team's performance during the course of a game. The notion of 'phases of play', whereby players and teams fluctuate through periods of 'high phase' and 'low phase' during a game, is used as a theoretical underpinning for the research. We also consider 'relative phase' that describes the overall interaction between the two teams. Team game data from the 2005/06 National Hockey League season were collected along with data for the games played up to time of research in the 2006/07 season. An optimized binary logistic regression model for both home and away teams was naturally found to model match outcome better than other methods when a team's score was included as a performance variable. This model correctly classified 91% of games as either a win or a loss. Using live match data, these logistic regression models were then used to create phases of play plots of a home team's and away team's performance throughout the progress of a number of games in the 2006/07 season. These scores were smoothed using a Tukey's T4253H smoother to eliminate excess noise in the phases of play plots. It was concluded that the results of this analysis gave an objective, simple and all-round measure of a team's performance which would be a valuable evaluative asset to coaches, the media and spectators.
Details
- Title
- Evaluating the performance of an ice hockey team using interactive phases of play
- Authors
- Anthony Bedford (Author) - RMIT UniversityJ Baglin (Author) - RMIT University
- Publication details
- IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, Vol.20(2), pp.159-166
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Date published
- 2009
- DOI
- 10.1093/imaman/dpn019
- ISSN
- 1471-678X
- Organisation Unit
- University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99450746502621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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- Web Of Science research areas
- Management
- Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
- Operations Research & Management Science
- Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods