Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia

Elvina Viennet; Gina Mincham; Francesca D Frentiu; Cassie C Jansen; Brian L Montgomery; David Harley; Robert L P Flower; Craig R Williams; Helen M Faddy

doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.73d82b08998c6d729c41ef6cdcc80176

Journal article

Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia

Elvina Viennet, Gina Mincham, Francesca D Frentiu, Cassie C Jansen, Brian L Montgomery, David Harley, Robert L P Flower, Craig R Williams and Helen M Faddy

PLoS Currents, Vol.13 December 2016(Edition 1)

2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.73d82b08998c6d729c41ef6cdcc80176

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Abstract

Clinical Sciences

Cardiovascular Medicine and Haematology

Immunology

Introduction: Zika virus could be transmitted in the state of Queensland, Australia, in parts of the state where the mosquito vectors are established. Methods: We assessed the epidemic potential of Zika in Queensland from January 2015 to August 2016, and estimate the epidemic potential from September to December 2016, by calculating the temperature-dependent relative vectorial capacity (rVc), based on empirical and estimated parameters. Results: Through 2015, we estimated a rVc of 0.119, 0.152, 0.170, and 0.175, respectively in the major cities of Brisbane, Rockhampton, Cairns, and Townsville. From January to August 2016, the epidemic potential trend was similar to 2015, however the highest epidemic potential was in Cairns. During September to November 2016, the epidemic potential is consistently the highest in Cairns, followed by Townsville, Rockhampton and Brisbane. Then, from November to December 2016, Townsville has the highest estimated epidemic potential. Discussion: We demonstrate using a vectorial capacity model that ZIKV could have been locally transmitted in Queensland, Australia during 2015 and 2016. ZIKV remains a threat to Australia for the upcoming summer, during the Brazilian Carnival season, when the abundance of vectors is relatively high. Understanding the epidemic potential of local ZIKV transmission will allow better management of threats to blood safety and assessment of public health risk.

Details

Title: Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia
Authors: Elvina Viennet (Author) - Australian Red Cross Blood Service
Gina Mincham (Author) - University of South Australia
Francesca D Frentiu (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Cassie C Jansen (Author)
Brian L Montgomery (Author)
David Harley (Author) - Australian National University
Robert L P Flower (Author) - Australian Red Cross Blood Service
Craig R Williams (Author) - University of South Australia
Helen M Faddy (Author) - Australian Red Cross Blood Service
Publication details: PLoS Currents, Vol.13 December 2016(Edition 1)
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Date published: 2016
DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.73d82b08998c6d729c41ef6cdcc80176
ISSN: 2157-3999
Organisation Unit: School of Health - Biomedicine; School of Health; School of Health and Sport Sciences - Legacy; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450813902621
Output Type: Journal article

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