Journal article
El niño Southern oscillation, overseas arrivals and imported chikungunya cases in Australia: A time series analysis
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol.13(5), e0007376
2019
Abstract
Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen circulating in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Although autochthonous transmission has not been reported in Australia, there is a potential risk of local CHIKV outbreaks due to the presence of suitable vectors, global trade, frequent international travel and human adaptation to changes in climate. Methodology/Principal findings: A time series seasonal decomposition method was used to investigate the seasonality and trend of monthly imported CHIKV cases. This pattern was compared with the seasonality and trend of monthly overseas arrivals. A wavelet coherence analysis was applied to examine the transient relationships between monthly imported CHIKV cases and southern oscillation index (SOI) in time-frequency space. We found that the number and geographical distribution of countries of acquisition for CHIKV in travellers to Australia has increased in recent years. The number of monthly imported CHIKV cases displayed an unstable increased trend compared with a stable linear increased trend in monthly overseas arrivals. Both imported CHIKV cases and overseas arrivals showed substantial seasonality, with the strongest seasonal effects in each January, followed by each October and July. The wavelet coherence analysis identified four significant transient relationships between monthly imported CHIKV cases and 6-month lagged moving average SOI, in the years 2009-2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015-2016. Conclusion/Significance: High seasonal peaks of imported CHIKV cases were consistent with the high seasonal peaks of overseas arrivals into Australia. Our analysis also indicates that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation may impact CHIKV epidemics in endemic regions, in turn influencing the pattern of imported cases.
Details
- Title
- El niño Southern oscillation, overseas arrivals and imported chikungunya cases in Australia: A time series analysis
- Authors
- X Huang (Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyW Hu (Author) - Queensland University of TechnologyL Yakob (Author) - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United KingdomG J Devine (Author) - QIMR Berghofer Medical Research InstituteE A McGraw (Author) - Pennsylvania State University, United StatesC C Jansen (Author) - Queensland HealthHelen M Faddy (Author) - Australian Red Cross Blood ServiceF D Frentiu (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
- Publication details
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol.13(5), e0007376
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science
- Date published
- 2019
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007376
- ISSN
- 1935-2727
- Copyright note
- Copyright © 2019 Huang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
- Organisation Unit
- School of Health - Biomedicine; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Health and Sport Sciences - Legacy; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99451604802621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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