Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

N A Cradock-Henry; B Frame; Benjamin Preston; A Reisinger; D S Rothman

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2270-7

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Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

N A Cradock-Henry, B Frame, Benjamin Preston, A Reisinger and D S Rothman

Climatic Change, Vol.150(3-4), pp.333-341

2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2270-7

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Abstract

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decisionrelevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.

Details

Title: Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios
Authors: N A Cradock-Henry (Author) - Landcare Research, New Zealand
B Frame (Author) - Landcare Research, New Zealand
Benjamin Preston (Author) - Infrastructure Resilience and Environmental Policy, United States
A Reisinger (Author) - New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, New Zealand
D S Rothman (Author) - University of Denver, United States
Publication details: Climatic Change, Vol.150(3-4), pp.333-341
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Date published: 2018
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2270-7
ISSN: 0165-0009
Copyright note: Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; Sustainability Research Cluster
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450873702621
Output Type: Journal article

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